Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture Fulda, 20 April 2007 Alexander Müller Assistant Director-General Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 1

World population: 1750 2050 Further growth, but at drastically declining rates Assumptions Total population (billions) 12.0 0.9 0.8 9.0 0.7 0.6 6.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Annual increments (billions) Source: UN, 2003 2

Urban and Rural Population 1950-2030 Urbanization to accelerate 6 Assumptions Billion people 5 4 3 2 1 actual expected Urban Rural 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2002 3

Ageing and population dividend of an Asian Tiger Assumptions 4

Distribution of income: today and in 2030 Assumptions US$ 13,416 per person Developed Countries 80% Increase by more than 200% Developing Countries 20% 1997/99 US$ 986 per person Increase by more than 300% 2030 Developing Countries 34% Developed Countries 66% US$ 3,408 per person US$ 33,361 per person 5

Ziele und tatsächliche Entwicklung in der Hungerbekämpfung Ziele und Wirklichkeit Unterernährte in Millionen 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1969/71 1990/92 1999/01 2015 2030 Ostasien Südasien s.s-afrika Latein Amerika Naher Osten-Nordafrika Entwicklungsländer WFS-Ziel MDG6 Quelle: FAO 2003

Erfolge und Misserfolge in der Hungerbekämpfung Hunger und Überfluss 7 Source: FAO, SOFI, 2002

Entwicklung der Energie- und Proteinverfügbarkeit pro Person FAO: Ernährung 2015/2030 8

und zuviel Zucker und Fett AT2030 9

The nutrition transition As China get richer... Chinese diet, adults aged 20-45 years Less than 10% of energy from fat: 30% or more from fat 1989 1991 1993 1997 1989 1991 1993 1997 Source: B.Popkin, China Health & Nutrition Survey, 10

The nutrition transition As China get richer... Chinese diet, adults aged 20-45 years Less than 10% of energy from fat: 30% or more from fat 1989 1991 1993 1997 1989 1991 1993 1997 Source: B.Popkin, China Health & Nutrition Survey, 11

The nutrition transition As China get richer... Chinese diet, adults aged 20-45 years Less than 10% of energy from fat: 30% or more from fat 1989 1991 1993 1997 1989 1991 1993 1997 Source: B.Popkin, China Health & Nutrition Survey, 12

250 200 150 100 50 0 Global Diabetes Prevalence 13 Asia/Australia 2000 2030 +62% +51% +31% +64% +57% Africa America Europe Near East Million people

thousand people 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 Global Diabetes Mortality in 2000 (age group between 35 and 64 years) 204.000 231.000 261.000 89.000 Africa America Europe Near East 977.000 Asia/Australia 14

HIV/AIDS and Diabetes mellitus, worldwide millions 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 HIV/AIDS Diabetes cases - 2003 deaths - 2003 Source: www.unaids.org The status of the global epidemic Nov03; 15 WHO/IDF, Diabetes Action now, 2004

Übergewicht ist nicht mehr nur ein Problem der Industrieländer BMI>30 AT2030 16

Das Ergebnis einer unnatürlichen Evolution The outcomes Quelle: The Economist 17

C. Ausblick bis 2030: Ausgewählte Ergebnisse Die wichtigsten Exportmärkte Million Tonnen 240 190 140 90 Getreideimporte der Entwicklungsländer 1970-2030 Historische Entwicklung Ostasien Südasien Naher Osten/Nordafrika Latein Amerika s.s.afrika Projektionen 40-10 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 18

C. Ausblick bis 2030: Ausgewählte Ergebnisse Fleischimporte/ -exporte der Entwicklungsländer Die wichtigsten Exportmärkte 1000 Tonnen 3000 1000-1000 -3000-5000 -7000-9000 Historische Entwicklung Südasien Ostasien Naher Osten/Nordafrika Latein Amerika s.s. Afrika Projektionen 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 19

Animal protein trade Poultry trade flow Beef trade flow Pork trade flow Canada Russian Federation USA Japan Mexico India Brazil Argentina Australia 20

niches in the disease landscape are taken up by already existing pathogens often originating from wildlife (emergence of H5N1) 2,500,000 China Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Thailand and Vietnam 2,000,000 Duck Meat Production (Tons) 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 22

US $ 50 B SARS China, Singapore, Canada, Thailand ~50 B US $ 40 B US $ 30 B FMD UK 20-30 B Cost US $ 20 B Avian Influenza 12-14 B US $ 10 B Cholera Peru 775 M 1991 1993 1995 Adapted from Bio Economic Research Associates, 2004. www.bio-era.net BSE UK 10-13 B FMD Taiwan 5 B West Nile USA Lyme Dz ~500 M 2.5 B Nipah Malaysia ~400 M 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year BSE US 3.5 B 2005 23

Adapted 24 from Foresight, 2006. www.foresight.gov.uk

Agricultural resource use: state, challenges and options for the future million ha 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1066 Land in use versus suitable area for crop production 1031 366 220 203 228 232 207 Latin America and Caribbean sub-saharan Africa Suitable for rainfed crop production Arable land use, 1997/99 99 86 East Asia South Asia Near East/North Africa 874 387 Industrialized countries 497 265 Transition Economies 25

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Irrigation water withdrawal as a share of renewable water resources (%) Today in 2030 26 Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia All developing countries sub-saharan Africa Agricultural resource use: state, challenges and options for the future

4. What challenges for the resource base?... despite growing water scarcity, water use efficiency gains can still be reaped! Irrigation efficiency by region (in %) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Today in 2030 sub-saharan Africa Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia All developing countries 27 Agricultural resource use: state, challenges and options for the future

World Agriculture: towards 2015/30 Thanks for your attention! More in... http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm 28