A farm advisory system model

Transkript

1 A farm advisory system model Dipl.-Geogr. Enno Eiben

2 Regional strategies concerning climate change in the metropolitan area of Hamburg T 1 Estuary River Management T 2 Integrated Urban Development T 3 Sustainable Cultivated Environment Cross-sectional tasks

3 Regional strategies concerning climate change in the metropolitan area of Hamburg Development of an advisory system model for farms in the meadows of the Biosphere Reserve of Lower Saxonian Elbe Valley to adapt to climate change and different market demands.

4 Source: LWK Niedersachsen Source: Prof. Dr. Hans-Joachim Weigel ECCA Hamburg, March 18th 2013 Source: LWK Niedersachsen Source: LWK Niedersachsen

5 Social optimisation? Economical optimisation? or? Ecological optimisation? Which division of my farm needs further improvement?

6 Climate change Social optimisation? Market demands Economical optimisation? or? Ecological optimisation? What happens when situation changes?

7 other plants, more/less/other farm animals, intensification/extensification, more/less employees, less yield What if?

8 Our main objective: to give the farmer decision support happy medium decision decision decision farmer Stress, Insolvency,

9 How does it work? Entire model is built with software Consideo Modeler

10 How does it work? Collection of important factors Sustainability (reduced extract) economical social ecological Rentability Stability Equity capital formation Attractive landscape Compensation for nature protection Potential for biodiversity Active marketing Content farmer Reducing of soil erosion Nature protection service Personal education Crop diversity Productivity Reducing of greenhouse gas emission Education in ecological matters

11 How does it work? Example of interdependencies economical social ecological Rentability Meaning of - : more crop diversity less rentability and less crop diversity more rentability Stability Equity capital formation Attractive landscape Compensation for nature protection Potential for biodiversity Active marketing Content farmer Reducing of soil erosion Nature protection service Personal education Crop diversity Productivity Reducing of greenhouse gas emission Education in ecological Meaning of + : matters more crop diversity more attractive landscape and less crop diversity less attractive landscape

12 How does it work? Example of a (reinforcing) loop ECCA Hamburg, March 18th 2013

13 present Procedure of model development Workshop Workshop with farmers: to search for the most important factors dealing with a sustainable farm Most important factors Workshop Workshop with specialists from the Chamber of Agriculture and a specialist for Consideo Modeler (Kai Neumann): connection of factors with interference Connected +/- system for processes in a farm Correction model Interrogation/ data collection Interrogation of representative farms Testing and revision by experts and farmers Model prototype with variable parameters Integration of quantitative parameters Explanation process result

14 External preprocessing Interrogation Geo-data analysis Climate change parameters input Growth and yield models input Model Data collection

15 View into the model: data input ECCA Hamburg, March 18th 2013

16 View into the model: rating (example: nitrogen balance) ECCA Hamburg, March 18th 2013

17 View into the model: connection of factors in one submodel ECCA Hamburg, March 18th 2013

18 1 possible (not the best) adaptation reduced yield present ECCA Hamburg, March 18th 2013 model model model An evaluation example farm information 1995 hectares, 28 workers, 415 cows, 44 fatstock, 377 heifer, etc. input result soc ecol econ 0,463 0,48 0, hectares, - 10% yield 28 workers, 415 cows, 44 fatstock, 377 heifer, etc. input soc ecol econ 0,427 0,477 0, hectares, 28 workers, 500 cows, 44 fatstock, 400 heifer, etc. input soc ecol econ 0,453 0,476 0,409

19 Conclusions Can be a useful tool for sustainable planning Reflects the 3 pillars of sustainability and their interdependence no single economic point of view Still in progress There are different perspectives on things You ll never finish it

20 Thank you for your attention! Dipl.-Geogr. Enno Eiben KLIMZUG-Nord T 3.2, T 3.3 Chamber of Agriculture Lower Saxony District office Uelzen Wilhelm-Seedorf-Straße Uelzen phone: +49 (0) enno.eiben@lwk-niedersachsen.de References: BÜTZER, P., ROTH, M., 2006: Die Zeit im Griff- Systemdynamik in Chemie und Biochemie, Zürich. DLG, 2013: Nachhaltiger Ackerbau Effizienz steigern, Image pflegen, Ressourcen schonen. Merkblatt 369, Frankfurt. HAAREN, C. von, HACHMANN, R., 2008: Naturschutz im landwirtschaftlichen Betriebsmanagement - EDV-Systeme zur Unterstützung der Erfassung, Bewertung und Konzeption von Naturschutzleistungen landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe. Stuttgart. KAPLAN, R. S., NORTON, D. P., 1992: The Balanced Scorecard Measures that drive Performance. In: Harvard Business Review Jan./Febr. 1992, S KTBL, 2007: Bewertung ökologischer Betriebssysteme Bodenfruchtbarkeit, Stoffkreisläufe, Biodiversität. KTBL- Schrift 458. Darmstadt. KTBL, 2008: Kriteriensystem nachhaltige Landwirtschaft (KSNL). KTBL-Schrift 466. Darmstadt. KTBL, 2009: Faustzahlen für die Landwirtschaft, 14. Auflage. Darmstadt. LANDWIRTSCHAFTSKAMMER NIEDERSACHSEN, : Betriebsstatistik Durchschnittsergebnisse aus dem Wirtschaftsjahr[en] Hannover. LANDWIRTSCHAFTSKAMMER NIEDERSACHSEN, : Richtwert- Deckungsbeiträge DB Hannover. NEUMANN, K., 2010: Consideo Modeler So einfach wie Mind Mapping: Vernetztes Denken und Simulation, Norderstedt. ROEDENBECK, I. A. E., 2004: Bewertungskonzepte für eine nachhaltige und umweltverträgliche Landwirtschaft Fünf Verfahren im Vergleich. BIOGUM, Hamburg. STERMAN, J. D., 2000: Business Dynamics system thinking and modelling for a complex world. Boston. Internet references: REPRO: ( ) RISE: ( ) Consideo: ( ) ML: ( ) MU: ( ) ECCA Hamburg, March 18th 2013