DER PHOTOVOLTAIK ZUR. President EPIA. 1. Oldenburger Symposium energy 2050

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1 DER UNTERSCHÄTZTE BEITRAG DER PHOTOVOLTAIK ZUR ENERGIEWENDE Winfried Hoffmann President EPIA 1. Oldenburger Symposium energy 2050 Ökonomie und Märkte Oldenburg, 14. Mai 2012

2 Applied Solar Expertise Dr. Winfried Hoffmann ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA Member of the Supervisory Board of SMA Solar Technology AG Member of Scientific Board of FhG ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz

3 Kundennutzen on grid off grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 3

4 die Energiewende: Ende der Kernenergie und trotzdem weniger CO2 Mehr Erneuerbare Energien bei Vorrang EE mehr regelbare fossile Kraftwerke Ausbau des Übertragungsnetzes Umbau/Erneuerung der Verteiler- und Niederspannungsnetze Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 4

5 die Energiewende: Ende der Kernenergie <~ 90 TWh und trotzdem weniger CO2 > 40% by 2020 Mehr Erneuerbare Energien bei Vorrang EE mehr regelbare fossile Kraftwerke > 30% EE Strom Ausbau des Übertragungsnetzes wind off-shore Umbau/Erneuerung der Verteilerund Niederspannungsnetze smart grids etc Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 5

6 warum glauben wichtige Entscheidungsträger nicht an EE/PV? Die Erneuerbaren Energien werden NIEMALS den weltweit steigenden Energiebedarf zu 100% decken PV ist eine faszinierende, aber viel zu teure Technologie PV erhält viel zu viel Unterstützung im Vergleich zur Stromproduktion aus Solaranlagen PV fluktuiert täglich und saisonal PV lässt sich nur schwer in das bestehende Stromnetz integrieren Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 6

7 warum glauben wichtige Entscheidungsträger nicht an EE/PV? Die Erneuerbaren Energien werden NIEMALS den weltweit steigenden Energiebedarf zu 100% decken PV ist eine faszinierende, aber viel zu teure Technologie PV erhält viel zu viel Unterstützung im Vergleich zur Stromproduktion aus Solaranlagen PV fluktuiert täglich und saisonal PV lässt sich nur schwer in das bestehende Stromnetz integrieren Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 7

8 Global installed capacity 2011 ~70 GW (~ 80,000,000 MWh) Corresponding to 53 full size 1,300MW nuclear reactors and energy wise to the annual output of 9 such reactors Europe alone has installed more in 2011 than the total capacity outsideeurope. Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 8

9 Photovoltaic Today in the World PV Markets with Capacity Additions > 1GW Capacity Additions in Europe (GW) 7, , PV Share: 23% RES Share: 46% 2,3 1,5 13,4 9,9 5,7 Germany Italy Czech Republic Gas PV Wind Other PV Markets with Capacity Additions > 1GW Capacity Additions in Europe (GW) ,3 21,1 PV Share: 46% 7,5 RES Share: 73% 10,3 9,7 46 4,6 2,2 1,9 1,7 1,3 PV Wind Gas Other Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop Sources: EWEA, EPIA, EGP estimate 9

10 Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zwischen PV Stromproduktionskosten und Strompreisen the story of Grid parity (Base-load cost & margin) Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 1999 Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 10

11 Photovoltaic Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology 100 Wafer thickness ,7mm 0,15mm AS SP in $/W 10 1 source: NAVIGANT PEF 20% 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 MW accumulated Kerf loss 0,5mm 0,10mm Efficiency 8% 22% Automation Industrial manufacturing Economy of scale 0,1MW 200MW Modularity same building block from kw to GW systems Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 11

12 Photovoltaic Price Experience Curve PEC for c-si will continue 2. Reason for different PEC and PEF for Thin Film PV AS SP in $/W 10 1 PEF 20% Thin Film source: NAVIGANT 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 MW accumulated 3. Different growth rates for global PV installations as parameter 4. Different fraction of TF/c-Si as parameter Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 12

13 Photovoltaic Future Price Development PEC Scenario Case A: Baseline TF share 15% const TF PEF 20% Case B:Paradigm Shift TF share 15% 35% TF PEF 25% 10,0 in $/W Actual volume end 2011 Case B A csi 20% c-si Technology price expectation in 2020 ca $ct/w (70+/-10) ASP 1,0 Case A TF 20% Case B TF 25% Thin Film Technology price expectation in 2020 ca $ct/w (50+/-20) 0,1 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06 MW accumulated actual 2011 price range Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 13

14 PV Production and Load Germany Power load GW 66 PV production and power load in Germany (GW) 1H2011 PV Production 20 GW Power load PV Production: May April Hour PV production in Germany in 1H2011 was able to satisfy: 5-10% of the national peak portion of the load in winter 20-30% of the national peak portion of the load in summer 5 0 June March February January Source: IZES - Institut für Zukunftsenergiesysteme, BSW - Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 14

15 PV effect on electricity market prices Germany Electricity price index on EPEX in 2007 and 2011 (average peak to base price ratio in %) PV production (TWh) 160% 140% 120% % % % Hour Solar power reduces average trading prices on liquid wholesale markets The price reduction effect for 2011 amount to several hundreds M (Merit Order Effect) Source: IZES - Institut für Zukunftsenergiesysteme, BSW - Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 15

16 Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 16

17 PV power in Germany Source: SMA Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 17

18 PV in interconnected electricity systems Example: export of German PV energy to France 9 February 2012 Over 100 GW of demand in France 9.4GW imports about 1/3 coming from PV between 10:30 and 15:30 Electricity imports in France reached 9.4GW PV energy exports from Germany in winter! Peak Prices in France and Germany on 9th February 2012 ( /MWh) :00 AM 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 12:00 PM 1:00 PM PV production France Germany Source: Bruxelles, QE, 21 Renewables March International 7 th EPIA Market EEX power Workshop exchange, Epex Spot 18

19 PV power in Germany Ref.: SMA Bruxelles, 21 March th EPIA Market Workshop 19

20 Super and Smart Grids On&Offshore (eg Scandinavia) wind parks Pumped storage power station HV TSO s &Supergrids: HVAC HVDC Smart Grids (LV)t Prosumer PV, DSM smart meter Battery Self consumption Pumped storage power station (eg Austria) Source: W. Hoffmann, own considerations, March 2011 Pumped storage power station (eg Switzerland) Medium voltage distribution grid 20

21 Impact on Germany s electricity load curve with up to 50 GW PV PV reduces the daily peaks 21 21

22 PV hosting capacity can be increased further with additional measures in order of economic viability III Expansion of hosting capacity through measures Example Germany GW Conservative scenario Realistic scenario GW Current grid #7 VAr control #8 #12 tap urban grid changerreinforcement Total 0 Current grid #7 VAr control #8 #12 tap urban grid changerreinforcement Total Rural Urban Source: Consentec analysis; EPIA and A.T. Kearney Workshop inputs 22

23 Zubauvarianten PV in Deutschland (GW ~TWh) A N N U A L I N S T cum year Röttgen Rö/Rö BAU

24 Development of the Various Market Regions cent (%) per EU US RoW on grid RoW off grid Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates 24

25 Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage in % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Non RES Other RES Bio Mass Current global primary energy consumption Solar power (continents, 1800 x GPEC) Wind energy (200 x GPEC) Biomass (20 x GPEC) Geothermal energy (10 x GPEC) Ocean and wave energy (2 x GPEC) Hydro energy (1 x GPEC) RES share 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Wind STC Solar Thermie PV 0% Towards 2050 Towards 2100 ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/

26 Renewable Market Global Installed Capacity Market Growth Renewable Installed Capacity: (GW) 790 GW 1,300 GW 2,550 GW 4,770 GW CAGR +5.2% CAGR 6.8% CAGR 6.5% , , ,280 1,500 1, Hydro Onshore Wind Offshore Wind PV CSP Biomass Geo Increasing alignment of the major world energy data provider Strong growth expected in particular for solar PV and wind Sources: EPIA, Enerdata, WEO 2011, EER, GWEC, EWEA, NREAP, REN 21, EGP 26

27 verpatzte Chance für Etablierung einer Zukunftsindustrie o Nach anfänglichen Erfolgen, neue Industrien in Deutschland industriepolitisch zu unterstützen (Halbleiterfertigung in Dresden, Photovoltaikproduktion in Erfurt, Thalheim etc), haben wir beim nächsten großen Schritt im Vergleich zu anderen großen Volkswirtschaften bis jetzt versagt o Flankierende Maßnahmen zur rechten Zeit hätten den Aufbau einer global wettbewerbsfähigen Produktion ermöglichen können (z.b. international vergleichbare Finanzierungskonzepte, steuerliche Modelle etc) o Eine vor einem Jahr beendete Strategiediskussion bei der EU Kommission (HLG-KET) adressierte die Notwendigkeit, neben F&E auch die Massenproduktion in Europa halten zu müssen bis jetzt ohne Erfolg! 27

28 Valley of Death EU focus in the past With consequences 28

29 Valley of Death 29

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