WILL SOLAR ENERGY BE A REAL PLAYER IN NEW JERSEY S ENERGY FUTURE?

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1 WILL SOLAR ENERGY BE A REAL PLAYER IN NEW JERSEY S ENERGY FUTURE? 2012 NEW JERSEY PLANNING CONFERENCE New Brunswick, NJ February 1, 2013 Lyle K. Rawlings, PE MSEIA Vice President, New Jersey Advanced Solar Products President & CEO Solstice Manufacturing Company President

2 TOPICS: 1. DOING IT WITHOUT BATTERIES: High penetration PV: the German experience & where New Jersey stands 2. MSEIA s study on the value delivered by solar in New Jersey and Pennsylvania 3. A Concept for the Future of New Generating Capacity 4. DOING IT WITH BATTERIES: Implications of Superstorm Sandy 5. New Jersey solar incentive policy restructuring needed

3 Penetration of PV: Jersey vs. Germany New Jersey leads the U.S. in PV penetration. Currently penetration is: ~1.5% annual energy ~ 5% peak generating capacity Germany leads the world. German power snapshot: ~80 GW peak load ~36 GW min. load ~32 GW solar generating capacity, growing fast ~30 GW wind generating capacity

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5 Die Photovoltaik wird wesentliche Säule im Energiemix > Mittagsspitze in Deutschland am 70 Photovoltaik PV ersetzt im wesentlichen Spitzenleistung sonnigen Samstag zu 43% aus PV Wind 60 Konventionelle Erzeugungseinheiten > 100 MW > PV-Leistung ist gut prognostizierbar Leistung in GW GW 2.4 GW 26.9 GW > Zuverlässige, regional aufgelöste Folgetags-Prognosen für die Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung Phelix Day Base Day Peak h 2h 4h 6h 8h 10h 12h 14h 16h 18h 20h 22h Samstag, Daten-Quelle: EEX-Transparenzplattform /MWh h 4h 8h 12h 16h 20h Daten-Quelle: EEX

6 Die Photovoltaik wird wesentliche Säule im Energiemix > Mittagsspitze in Deutschland am 70 PV ersetzt im wesentlichen Spitzenleistung sonnigen Wintertag zu 18% aus PV Leistung in GW Photovoltaik Wind 12.7 GW 10.5 GW 47.7 GW Konventionelle Erzeugungseinheiten > 100 MW 0 0h 2h 4h 6h 8h 10h 12h 14h 16h 18h 20h 22h Mittwoch, Daten-Quelle: EEX-Transparenzplattform > PV-Leistung ist gut prognostizierbar > Zuverlässige, regional aufgelöste Folgetags-Prognosen für die Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung /MWh Phelix Day Base Day Peak 0h 4h 8h 12h 16h 20h Daten-Quelle: EEX

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9 In September of 2011 the CEO of Siemens announced that Siemens was exiting the nuclear energy business and said, Germany s shift towards renewable energies is the project of the century. Can the same be said in the U.S.?

10 Bloomberg.com: German Power Tumbles to Record Low as Solar Damps Demand

11 The Value of Distributed Solar Electric Generation to New Jersey and Pennsylvania Clean Power Research Dr. Thomas Hoff Dr. Richard Perez Dr. Benjamin Norris

12 Figure ES 1. Levelized value ($/MWh), by location (South 30).

13 Hypothesis: A mix of clean energy resources in New Jersey led by solar power can, and should, provide all new and replacement electric generating capacity for the future starting now.

14 A very rough example: Source Capacity, MW Cost ($1,000's) MWH Baseload MWH Peak Natural Gas, advanced 526 $946,800 3,004, ,871 Solar 1300 $2,730, ,760 1,480,440 Wind 600 $2,100,000 1,156, ,720 Demand Response 800 $800, , ,960 Electric Storage/ice storage 100 $800,000 (876,000) 744,600 Energy Efficiency 525 $787, ,800 1,839,600 Transmission & dist. $75,000 Totals $8,239,300 4,572,300 6,172,191 If the rough guesses above are near correct, the clean energy mix could provide baseload and peak - as much as a 900 MW new nuclear plant and 1,000 MW of standard-art gas peakers would provide. The mix could do so with lower capital cost, lower KWH cost, lower capital risk. Completion would be much faster, with less risk to the public, and much less public conflict.

15 INNOVATION Bayonne Midtown School World s first large PV system with Emergency Power ASP / SMA Americas Joint Venture Development Project

16 A D V A N C E D S O L A R P R O D U C T S PV Inverter 3 Meter Main Distribution Panel Emergency Power Panel T R S A W N I S T F C E H R In a power outage, the existing emergency power system automatically disconnects from the outside electric grid The Generator starts The Inverter re starts in a special Generator Support Mode and automatically shares the building s emergency power load with the Generator, keeping fuel use to a minimum When power is restored, the Inverter goes back to normal mode, supplying solar power to the building The entire process is fully automated 1 2 Generator

17 Implications for the Future of PV from Superstorm Sandy: The fragility of the electric grid was highlighted. Global warming is back on the table. The many advantages of distributed generation can be reexamined.

18 Services PV can provide to the electric grid: Distributed PV power with current technology can help stabilize the grid: + Voltage support with LVRT/OVRT + Frequency support with frequency ride through + Reactive power control + Reduced transmission & distribution current flows, reduced voltage loss. Distributed PV with battery storage can help further: + Frequency regulation + Dispatchable capacity + Demand charge reduction + Emergency power

19 Electric Energy Storage: Rapid progress in new technologies, commercial products, and new business models

20 Emergency Power in the Distributed Generation Age: New business models and grid management models can pay for the emergency power capacity today. This will only get easier and cheaper as technology progresses. We learned a lot about the need for highly distributed emergency power from Sandy. New things are on the radar screen. Traditional: water pumping, sewage treatment, communications infrastruture, fire & police, etc. New: Supermarkets, restaurants, food distribution centers, gas stations, even local gyms.