Renewable Resources: An Option for the Future?

Transkript

1 IFAT - Canada Special 2014 Managing the Future of Water and Energy Resources New Munich Trade Fair Centre, May 7th, 2014 Renewable Resources: An Option for the Future? Jürgen Karl Lehrstuhl für Energieverfahrenstechnik Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen- Nürnberg

2 Motivation State-of-the-art Challenges other Conclusion Key Questions for the German and Canadian Energy Economy: 1. Is Germany s Energiewende a suitable model for Canadian Economy? 2. Are Canadian Energy Resources a solution for Germany s energy demands? Folie 2

3 Motivation State-of-the-art Challenges other Conclusion Harper: "Independent of this particular crisis with Russia and Ukraine, it's our desire as Canadians to diversify our energy exports, in any case," he said. "We have huge resources, energy resources, and are a large global producer of virtually every type of energy but at the present time we largely sell to ourselves." Folie 3

4 Motivation State-of-the-art Challenges other Conclusion Key Questions for the German and Canadian Energy Economy: 1. Is Germany s Energiewende a suitable model for Canadian Economy? 2. Are Canadian Energy Resources a solution for Germany s energy demands? Folie 4

5 Impact of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) in Germany German Renewable Energy Law ( EEG ) initiated a booming industry 12% Primary energy Stand 2011 Quelle BMU, vorläufig 18% Power production bio-wastes 36% Installed capacity 9% 15% 12% Biomass Photovoltaikc 30% 24% Photovoltaics 32,6 GW 6% 3% Folie 5 Biomass 0% % 6% 3% Wind power hydro power 18% 12% 0% 0 % % Wind power 31,3 GW

6 Impact of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) in Germany German Renewable Energy Law ( EEG ) initiated a booming industry Wind and PV cover (theoretically) up to 80% of Germanys maximum power demand Installed capacity (kw) 27 x 36% 30% 24% Installed capacity Photovoltaics 32,6 GW 26 x 18% 12% 6% Wind power 31,3 GW Folie 6 0 %

7 A Summer Week in Germany Power Production In GW 70 Renewables cover 25% of Germanys power production Increasing the share of wind and PV requires affordable and most flexible back-up capacities up to 30 GW Renewables 60 PV still > 50 GW fossile and nuclear for baseload Wind Natural Gas bituminous coial lignite Nuclear Hydro Mo Tue Wed Thu Fr Sat Su Folie 7

8 IFAT Canada Special May 7th, 2014 Motivation Renewables are able to cover a State-of-the-art significant share of any nations energy demand Challenges Conclusions other Conclusion Folie 8 Department Chemie- und Bioingenieurwesen (CBI) Lehrstuhl für Energieverfahrenstechnik Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Karl

9 Price history natural gas US $ / MMbtu 14 Coupling to the oil price Reduced own reserves Rising demand and reduction of Russian deliveries resulted in rising prices in Europe NYMEX Natural Gas Index USA Import prices Germany Quellen: NYMEX, EEX, Stand Energiewirtschaftliche Daten, BMWi, 2011 Folie ca. 3 ct/kwh ca. 2 ct/kwh ca. 1 ct/kwh Stand

10 Natural gas production worldwide Share of the worlds production 2010 Production 2010 in Mrd. m³ consumptio n2010 in Mrd. m³ reserves - to - production ratio (conventional) Reserves in Mrd. m³ Reserves-toconsumption-ratio in years reserves current production Reserves-toproduction-ratio in years USA 19,5 650,9 690, Russia 18,9 629,5 474, Canada 4,8 160,5 104, Iran 4,5 151,8 153, China 3,1 103,1 130, Saudi-Arabia 2,8 92,3 92, Indonesia 2,7 91, Egypt 1,8 61,3 49, Arab Emirates 1,6 51,7 62, India 1,5 49,1 61, Europe 8,3 278,2 526, Germany 0,4 13,3 84,4 133 Norway 3 101,4 6,6 with Shale UK 1, ,2 Gas ,0 6,5 6, , , ,2 15,5 + 4,2 1,6 10,0 with Shale with Shale Gas 6,1 11,5 Gas Folie 10

11 Preisentwicklung am US-Erdgasmarkt US $ / MMbtu 14 Extremely cold winter in Europe Stand Coupling to the oil price Reduced own reserves Rising demand and reduction of Russian deliveries resulted in rising prices in Europe Folie NYMEX Natural Gas Index 2007 Import prices Germany Quellen: NYMEX, EEX, Stand Energiewirtschaftliche Daten, BMWi, ca. 3 ct/kwh no winter in Europe ca. 2 ct/kwh Extremely cold winter in Northern America ca. 1 ct/kwh

12 costs in ct/kwh Power generation costs in Germany Current EEGrevenues for Photovoltaics 13,5 ct/kwh Operational costs Capital costs Coal fired Power Plant Datteln 4 Capacity 1052 MW el Investment 1,2 Mrd. Efficiency 45% Folie 12 Example: Combined Cycle Power Plant Irsching Block 5 Investment 400 Mio. Capacity 845 MW el Efficiency 59,7% gas price: 2,8 ct/kwh h 1500h 3000h full load hours per year Fuel costs 858h 3000h 7500h

13 IFAT Canada Special May 7th, 2014 Motivation Renewables are able to cover a State-of-the-art significant share of any nations energy demand Challenges Conclusions other Fossil energy Conclusion resources are not necessarily cheaper than renewables on the long-term Folie 13 Department Chemie- und Bioingenieurwesen (CBI) Lehrstuhl für Energieverfahrenstechnik Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Karl

14 Motivation State-of-the-art Challenges other Conclusion Production of synthetic natural gas" from biomass ("Methanation") 1. Step: Thermal gasification Solution: ABBY-Net Excess of Canadian Renewable Resources Albertan Bavarian Research Network might provide for the European energy demands on the mid and long-term Canadian-German Partnerships will secure a sustainable future Examples: Substitute Natural Gas (SNG) / Power-to-Gas 2. Step: Methanation CH x O y + H 2 O (Biomass) gasification CO + 3 H 2 + CO 2, H 2 O, etc. CH 4 Folie 14 hydrogenation + 3 H 2 O, + CO2, CO hydrogen heat

15 exemplary joint research project Memorandum of Understanding on joint research collaboration between Alberta and Bavaria, June 2013 ABBY-Net Albertan Bavarian Research Network Folie 15 ABBY-Net Summer School, Kananaskis, August 2012 ABBY-Net, Summer School, Kloster Banz August 2013 An interdisciplinary network of researchers from Albertan and Bavarian Universities Founded in March / April 2011 after an Bavarian delegation visit to Alberta ABBY-Net Mission Evaluating the co-evolution of Energy Systems and Ecosystems, focusing on Cleaner Energy Production, Transportation and Storage Impact of new Energy Infrastructure and Processes on Ecosystems Effects of changing environmental conditions on energy systems Water Security (sustainable water supply)

16 An interdisciplinary network of researchers from Albertan and Bavarian Universities Involved scientific disciplines Environmental sciences Energy engineering Computing Sciences ABBY-Net Albertan Bavarian Research Network Research focuses: Interdisciplinary evaluation of mechanisms, impacts and feedbacks between existing and innovative energy systems and ecosystems predictions of energy scenarios and environmental impacts with latest computational methods Folie 16

17 Motivation State-of-the-art Challenges other Conclusion Harper: "Independent of this particular crisis with Russia and Ukraine, it's our desire as Canadians to diversify our energy exports, in any case," he said. "We have huge resources, energy resources, and are a large global producer of virtually every type of energy but at the present time we largely sell to ourselves." Folie 17

18 IFAT Canada Special May 7th, 2014 Final Conclusion Motivation Renewables are able to cover a State-of-the-art significant share of any nations energy demand Challenges other Fossil energy Conclusion resources are not necessarily cheaper on the long-term up-coming challenges require transatlantic cooperation on an scientific, political and economical level in order to further promote competitive Renewable Energy Solutions worldwide! Folie 18 Department Chemie- und Bioingenieurwesen (CBI) Lehrstuhl für Energieverfahrenstechnik Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Karl