Session 1: Decarbonization of the Transport Sector in Times of low Oil Prices Measures to Reduce Fuel GHG Emissions Christoph Bender Managing Director Mineralölwirtschaftsverband 1
1. MWV at a Glance Members: 12 integrated mineral oil companies CEO: Michael Schmidt, CEO BP Europe Main Task: National downstream lobbying Energy mix in Germany: Mineral oil = 33% of primary energy (2014), still number one Main outlet: Fuels for transport. Diesel: 37 Mio. t, Gasoline: 18 Mio. t (2015) Principles: Level Playing field, free market economy 2
2. The Look Back: Oil Price 2003-2015 (source: oilprice.com) 3
2. The Look Back: German Oil Consumption 2000-2015 4
3. The Current Situation: The Mixed Approach Fuels and Engines in Germany on January 1st 2015: 44,4 million passenger cars 29.8 million gasoline engines 13,8 million diesel engines 500.000 LPG 80.000 CNG 19.000 Electric vehicles 108.000 Hybrid Biofuel Quota Act: GHG-Reduction of 3,5 % per year 5
4. The Road Ahead The Road ahead to further GHS Emissions: The DLR Scenario DLR is the national aeronautics and space research center of the Federal Republic of Germany 2014 Scenario: The market for passenger cars in 2040 Guideline: Further CO 2 Reduction for passenger cars 2020: 95 g CO 2 /km; 2030: 70 g CO 2 /km; 2040: 45 g CO 2 /km The decision of the customer is the focal point of the study Customer decision based on mobility behavior, costs of ownership and well to wheel emissions 6
5. Passenger Cars 2040: The Mixed Approach Reloaded Passenger car fleet: Development until 2040 2040: 95 % passenger cars = combustion engine Hybrid is dominant = 26 million passenger cars 1,4 million electric vehicles 7
6. The Mixed Approach Reloaded: GHG Results in 2040 Passenger car fleet in 2040: CO 2 Emissionen nearly cut into halves Taking into account the energy policy triangle, GHG reduction is possible Combustion engine remains backbone of transport 8
7. The Political Roadmap to 2050 If the ambitious targets are to be met, whilst Germany also remains a competitive base for economic activity, the energy transition needs to be a success not only in environmental, but also in economic terms. ( ) The overarching principle for the energy reforms is the "energy policy triangle" of a secure, affordable and environmentally compatible energy supply. Curbing mobility is not an option 9
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