Will the Energiewende lead to the introduction of a German capacity market?

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1 Will the Energiewende lead to the introduction of a German capacity market? Recent developments in the German debate Dr. Stephan Krieger, Director International Relations BDEW German Association of Energy and Water Industries

2 The German Association of Energy and Water Industries... represents the interests of the energy and water industries towards the government and the public; is the main contact for decision-makers in politics, media and administrative bodies as well as in industry, science and society; acts as competent service provider to its member companies on all energy, water and wastewater issues; is the think tank in terms of energy, water and wastewater issues. BDEW Bundesverband The der future for nuclear power and new approaches for energy efficiency, WEC and svensk energi, Stockholm Slide 2

3 The leading Association of the Energy and Water industries facts and figures* 1,800 member companies representing 90% 90% 60% 80% 30% 95 % 95 % of electricity sales of natural gas sales of local and district heat supply of drinking water abstraction of wastewater disposal of the persons employed in the energy and water industries of the investments of the energy and water industries The total sector stands for a turnover of 140 billion Euros.** * Data for 2009; ** Turnover from electricity and drinking water sales to end consumers as well as from end consumers wastewater disposal BDEW Bundesverband The der future for nuclear power and new approaches for energy efficiency, WEC and svensk energi, Stockholm Slide 3

4 root of public discussion on capacity mechanisms 3 major problems Autor der Präsentation Seite 4

5 Problem 1 Capacity is scarce Autor der Präsentation Seite 5

6 installierte Leistung in MW Phase-out of German Nuclear Power Plants due to Atomgesetz* (AtG 7) Biblis A Biblis B GKN-I Neckar KKB Brunsbüttel KKI-1 Isar KKK Krümmel KKP-1 Philippsburg KKU Unterweser KKG Grafenrheinfeld (-8.422) (-1.275) (-1.284) KRB-B Gundremmingen KKP-2 Philippsburg (-1.402) KRB-C Gundremmingen KWG Grohnde KBR Brokdorf (-4.058) GKN-II Neckar KKE Emsland KKI-2 Isar * Abschaltungen 2015 bis 2022 jeweils bei Erreichen der in Anlage 3 AtG festgelegten Reststrommengen, spätestens jedoch mit Ablauf des des in 7 AtG genannten Jahres Quelle: Atomgesetz 7 SP-V/Ba Titel der Seite Präsentation 6 SP-V/Ba

7 Challenges for power plants I: After NPP-shutdown margins reduced esp. in winter Balance Preview January 2011, 19:00h - before the moratorium for NPP (ca. 7 GW) Installed capacity 160,2 GW Remaining RES 51,1 50,8 Capacity not available Hydro Other Natural Gas 9,7 6,3 22,1 Firm capacity* 93,1 GW 6,4 4,8 5,1 4,8 7,2 3,5 16,0 Revisions Outages Reserve for system services Load** 12,5 Remaining capacity*** Hard Coal Lignite 29,5 21,2 25,4 19,3 80,6 Nuclear* 20,3 16,9 Installed Capacity Firm Capacity* Load * Stoppage of NPP Brunsbüttel und Krümmel is included in firm capacity ** yearly peak load is usually 2-3 GW above seasonal preview of January 19:00h *** ENTSO-E proposes an Adequacy Reference Margin (security margin) of 7 GW sources: ENTSO-E; BDEW (own calculations on the basis of dena-data on reliable availability of each generation form) Slide 7 The future for nuclear power and new approaches for energy efficiency, WEC and svensk energi,

8 Compensation of Nuclear Shut-downs 2011 Compared to 2010 less consumption* less net exports nuclear shut-downs in march 2011 lignite hard coal, gas, pump storage and others renewables *mainly driven by mild weather conditions 2011 and declining production in some electricity intensive industries Quelle: BDEW (data 2011 based on first estimates) Dr. Stephan Krieger - Deutsch-französischer Zukunftsdialog Seite 8

9 Problem 2 Volatility trough intermittent renewables Autor der Präsentation Seite 9

10 Contribution and Targets of Renewable Energies Share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources 1) Targets in Federal Government s energy concept 80% 65% 50% 35% 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 12% 14% 15% 16% 17% 1) Related to gross national electricity consumption in Germany Source: BDEW Dr. Stephan Krieger - Deutsch-französischer Zukunftsdialog Seite 10

11 Installed vs. reliable generation of onshore wind und PV end of 2011 in MW 60,000 50,000 40, ,000 Photovoltaik Onshore Wind 20,000 30,000 10,000 0 Installierte Leistung Gesicherte Leistung Erfahrungswerte der ÜNB: Gesicherte Leistung Onshore Wind 1%, PV 0%

12 Feed-in capacity in MW Challenges for power plants: RES-contribution to firm capacity? feed-in wind and photovoltaic ( ) Wind Photovoltaics Wind & Photovoltaics Sources: Transmission System Operators, BDEW (own calculations) Contribution of PV and Wind to firm capacity is marginal Need for conventional power plants remains. But: Dr. Stephan Krieger - Deutsch-französischer Zukunftsdialog Seite 12

13 Flexibilitätsanforderungen aus dem Ausbau der EE Challenges: Power plants need to become more flexible Beherrschung von Leistungssprüngen nicht nur in der absoluten Höhe, sondern auch in der Steilheit. Windeinspeisung und Residuallastverlauf einer Windeinspeisung und Residuallastverlauf am 3-9.Februar 2009 Projektion auf 2020 GW Beispielwoche (installierte 2009 WEA: (inst. 24 GW) WEA: 24 GW) GW (installierte WEA: 45 GW) Projektion auf 2020 (installierte WEA: 45 GW) Steigende Nachfrage ~30 GW ~50 GW 10 0 fallende Windeinspeisung Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Mo Stromnachfrage Windeinspeisung Residuale Last Seite 13

14 Problem 3 Stability of the Grid Autor der Präsentation Seite 14

15 Phase-out of German Nuclear Power Plants due to Atomgesetz* (AtG 7) Brunsbüttel Unterweser Brokdorf (2021) Krümmel Abschaltungen 2011 Abschaltungen * Emsland (2022) Grohnde (2021) Biblis A Biblis B Grafenrheinfeld (2015) Philippsbg. 1 Philippsbg. 2 (2019) Isar 1 Isar 2 (2022) NWS 1 NWS 2 (2022) Gundremmingen B (2017) Gundremmingen C (2021) EasyMap-Kartengrundlage: (C) LUTUM+TAPPERT, Bonn * bei Erreichen der in Anlage 3 AtG festgelegten Reststrommengen, spätestens jedoch mit Ablauf des des jeweiligen Jahres Quelle: Atomgesetz (ATG) 7 SP-V/Ba Seite SP-V/Ba

16 Regional Allocation of Windpower and Photovoltaics in Germany Wind energy use 2010 Photovoltaics use 2010 Dr. Stephan Krieger - Deutsch-französischer Zukunftsdialog Seite 16

17 As a consequence: Stressed grids need extension Transmission Grid: Projects up to 2015 in time delayed Situation before nuclear shut-downs in 2011 Dr. Stephan Krieger - Deutsch-französischer Zukunftsdialog Seite 17

18 Ongoing Discussion Plenty of Proposals Autor der Präsentation Seite 18

19 Studies & reports (Germany) developments in other EU-Member States... are under discussion Autor der Präsentation Seite 19

20 Aspects to have in mind grid stability Grids in North-South direction will have to be built anyway (if wind shall be part of the solution).. Die marktbasierte Auslastung konventioneller Kraftwerke in Bayern und Baden-Württemberg ist nach den Berechnungen des NEP2012 insbesondere bei Gaskraftwerken sehr gering (s.u.). Bei Steinkohle sinkt die Ausnutzung nach 2022 rapide ab. Diese Kraftwerke stehen daher für die Spannungshaltung in den meisten Stunden des Jahres nicht zur Verfügung. (draft TYNDP 2012) 1. Grid extention must be part of the solution 2. additional measures have to be compatible Autor der Präsentation Seite 20

21 Some features for a capacity mechanism Make sure that the lights stay on Refrain from setting additional goals (technology / CO 2 etc.) Don t put the market at risk Keep costs for the overall economy as low as possible Restrict bureucracy to the necessary Avoid market power without stiffling the market Incentivise flexible loads Ability to switch back to a pure energy only market... Autor der Präsentation Seite 21

22 Aspects to have in mind borders Let s not forget about Europe! Market Coupling flow based X-border balancing 1. Europe must be part of the solution 2. additional measures have to be compatible Autor der Präsentation Seite 22

23 Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit! BDEW Bundesverband der Reinhardtstraße Berlin Telefon /