Climate Change and Protection against Natural Hazards in the Alpine Perimeter

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1 Climate Change and Protection against Natural Hazards in the Alpine Perimeter Peter Frei Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment, Public Health and Consumer Protection Waterbalance in the Alps Territorio e del Mare Munich, October 2008

2 Natural Hazards in the Alps Avalanches floods debris flow landslides rock falls earth quakes Source: Lawinenkommision Mittenwald storms 2 Munich,30 31 October 2008

3 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Natural Hazards in the Alps Avalanches floods debris flow landslides rock falls earth quakes storms 3 dell'ambiente e della Tutela Tutela del del della Munich,30 31 October 2008

4 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Natural Hazards in the Alps Avalanches floods debris flow landslides rock falls earth quakes storms 4 dell'ambiente e della Tutela Tutela del del della Munich,30 31 October 2008

5 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Natural Hazards in the Alps Avalanches floods debris flow landslides rock falls earth quakes storms 5 dell'ambiente e della Tutela Tutela del del della Munich,30 31 October 2008

6 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Natural Hazards in the Alps Avalanches floods debris flow landslides rock falls earth quakes storms 6 dell'ambiente e della Tutela Tutela del del della Munich,30 31 October 2008

7 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Natural Hazards in the Alps Avalanches floods debris flow landslides rock falls earth quakes storms 7 dell'ambiente e della Tutela Tutela del del della Munich,30 31 October 2008

8 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Natural Hazards in the Alps Avalanches floods debris flow landslides rock falls earth quakes storms 8 dell'ambiente e della Tutela Tutela del del della Munich,30 31 October 2008

9 Natural disasters in the Alps Dec 2005 March 2006 Austria, Germany Winter damage 650 m Euro overall losses 290 m Euro insured losses Earthquake Storm Flood Others Schwitzerland Floods 11 deaths, 2,600 m. Euro overall losses 1,450 m. Euro insured losses Switzerland, especially Gondo, Northern Italy Floods, landslides 38 deaths, 8,500 m. Euro overall losses 420 m. Euro insured losses Nothern Italy Floods 64 deaths, 9,300 m. Euro overall losses 65 m. Euro insured losses August 2002 Austria, Southern Germany, Italy Floods 30 deaths, 10,000 m. Euro overall losses 1,000 m. Euro insured losses 2008 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE 9 Munich,30 31 October 2008

10 Natural disasters in the Alps Number of events Number of events 50 Number Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE 10 Munich,30 31 October 2008

11 Flood events in Switzerland since 1500 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Naef et al., Munich,30 31 October 2008

12 Climate Change in the Alps Example Sonnblick (3105m) 12 Munich,30 31 October 2008

13 Bayerisches Staatsministerium Climate in in 2003 Climate Change Change Triglav TriglavGlacier Glacier dell'ambiente e della Tutela Tutela del del della Munich,30 31 October 2008

14 Change of Triglav Glacier Bayerisches Staatsministerium 14 Munich,30 31 October 2008

15 Climate Change Zugspitze 15 Munich,30 31 October 2008

16 Climate Change Zugspitze 16 Munich,30 31 October 2008

17 Climate Change Zugspitze 17 Munich,30 31 October 2008

18 Climate Change Zugspitze 18 Munich,30 31 October 2008

19 Climate Change Zugspitze 19 Munich,30 31 October 2008

20 Climate Change Zugspitze 20 Munich,30 31 October 2008

21 Climate Change Zugspitze 21 Munich,30 31 October 2008

22 Climate Change Zugspitze 22 Munich,30 31 October 2008

23 Climate Change in the Alps Results of Chapter Climate Change (Prof. Kaifez Bogataj, SL) Recent warming reduced snow fall, retreating glacier, increased rock falls (melting permafrost in higher regions) warmer winters with more precipitation perhaps flooding in winter warmer and drier summers than today with droughts became more frequent reduction of run-off in Summer (effects for tansport and housing infrastructure) increase of erosions, storms and fires effects undermine energy and water supplies mitigation, adoptation and improvement of knowledge is be aimed 23 Munich,30 31 October 2008

24 Climate Change in the Alps Bayerisches Staatsministerium exspected changes in the Alps may be drastic need of long-term integrated management of water resources need of spacial planning especially adoption strategies für water management and approaches to deal with increasing conflicts because of decreasing water avaibility 24 Munich,30 31 October 2008

25 Germany/Bavaria: Programm 2020 After flood in 1999: Programm 2020 established 2.3 billion within 20 years 42 mill. /year in the alpine area floods in 2005: Despite higher natural retention technical measures discharges than in 1999, the overall costs for the damage were substantially lower. further precautionary measures 25 Munich,30 31 October 2008

26 Austria: Hazard mapping and integrated risk management major flood events in 1997, 1999, 2002 and 2005 Integrated risk management strategy based on prevention, protection and provision Hazard map as key planning instrument, especially HORA Organisation is divided in 3 parts: Torrent and Avalanche Control (die. Wildbach) Federal Water Engineering Administration Waterway more than 2.5 billion are scheduled from 2007 to 2016 for preventive flood protection in Austria average 250 Mio. /year 26 Munich,30 31 October 2008

27 France: Different kinds of hazards require different measures Floods, avalanches, earth quakes and mudslides as main threats multi-risk-approach three domains: improve identification of possible risks update prevention measures increase public awareness multi-annual flood master plans, containing: flood warning stations, land planning determining a clear flood plain constraint, possible retention in some reservoirs, asking for seasonal management in order to provide an available capacity, sufficient protection for evacuation of sudden storm flow. 27 Munich,30 31 October 2008

28 Italy: Flood management based on riverbasins Hydro-geological Structure Plans (PAI), which identify, highlight and classify danger areas for flooding, landslide and avalanche Bayerisches Staatsministerium adopt specific prevention measures that regulate the use of land in hazardous areas reduce danger factors and also the vulnerability of areas exposed to risk 5,5 billion investment for hydrogeological risk prevention between 1991 and 2006 overall required (according to PAI's): ~40 billion It is therefore necessary to make best use of the resources available according to criteria based on maximum efficiency. 28 Munich,30 31 October 2008

29 Slovenia: maintenance of structures is challenging Bayerisches Staatsministerium 4 major floods in the last 10 years the country is highly exposed to natural hazards technical measures since the 19 th century app. ⅔ of the structures are older than 70 years increase of maintenance is necessary guidelines for hazard mapping have been introduced in 2007 spatial planning is based on them 29 Munich,30 31 October 2008

30 Switzerland: The Risk Management Cycle 30 Munich,30 31 October 2008

31 Alpine States public investments in prevention measures against damages caused by natural hazards in the alpine perimeter Member States of the Alpine Convention Annual investment on natural hazards Area / Percentage of the alpine perimeter * Inhabitants / Percentage in the alpine perimeter* Austria 280 Mio km² (28,46 %) 3,136 Mio. (23,79 %) France no Data 4089 km² (21,42 %) 2,198 Mio. (16,68 %)) Germany 42 Mio km² (5,84 %) 1,333 Mio. (10,11 %) Italy 340 Mio km² (27,58 %) 4,454 Mio. (33,79 %) Liechtenstein 4 16 km² (0,08 %) 0,029 Mio. (100 %) Monaco -- 0,195 km² (0,001 %) 0,029 Mio. (0,23 %) Slovenia km² (3,55 %) 0,375 Mio. (2,85 %) Switzerland 400 Mio km² (13,07 %) 1,625 Mio. (12,33 %) Sum more 1 billion km² 13,183 Mio. 31 Munich,30 31 October 2008

32 Protection against Natural Hazards Bayerisches Staatsministerium All Member States of the Alpine Conventions planing of risk maps (with minor differentiaton) increase of investments for protection measures integration of demands of Waterframework Direction integration of demands of the Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks also integration of demands of the Directive on the Conservation of Natural Habitats and Wild Fauna and Flora Switzerland: integrated approach, over-loading protection measures Germany/Bayern: new protection measures against flooding with 15 % uprated discharge, over-loading protection measures 32 Munich,30 31 October 2008

33 Protection against Natural Hazards Presence Future Protection Prevention Results of the PLANALP (Platform Natural Hazards of the Alpine Convention) 4 Hotspots for Prevention Explanation: President of the PLANAP 33 Munich,30 31 October 2008