Gestaltung der Energiewende: Dezentrale versus zentrale Elemente?

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1 Jahreskonferenz des Leibniz-Forschungsverbundes Energiewende Gestaltung der Energiewende: Dezentrale versus zentrale Elemente? Karsten Neuhoff,

2 1 Aufteilung des deutschen Endenergiebedarfs (8700 PJ) Fernwärme, Sonstige Kohle Mineralöl Erdgas Sonstige Erneuerbare Strom (erneuerbar) Strom (nicht erneuerbar) Haushalte Gewerbe, Handel und Dienstleistungen Bergbau und Verarbeitendes Gewerbe Verkehr Basierend auf: AG Energiebilanzen (2016) 2 Karsten Neuhoff,

3 2 Make use of renewables to stabilize energy costs Illustration excludes system costs Annuitized Investment (at 5%) for wind and solar generation at scale to replace fossil fuels Annual expenditure CO2 at 30 Euro/t Domestic fossil fuel Imported fossil fuel Similar cost level for serving demand with new wind and solar as with fossil fuel: - Cost of learning investment in wind and solar dominates debate but is sunk. DIW Berlin Calculations based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy; Energy Statistics for the EU-28; Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e. V.; IEA; European Wind Energy Association; Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, first published in Energy Journal (forthcoming) Karsten Neuhoff

4 3 Financing costs increase with (i) country situation (ii) policy design not addressing market imperfection and policy risk Weighted average cost of capital for wind reported by European investors in 2014 Based on DIA-CORE (2016): The impact of risks in renewable energy investments and the role of smart policies 4 Karsten Neuhoff

5 4 Power market and renewable policy needs to focus on risk management 10% ex-post adjustments, country risks 8% Sweden (Certificate Scheme) 4% Germany, revenue guarantee with feed-in 1. Cooperation can reduce financing cost for countries. 2. Policy can reduce financing cost for wind and solar by ensuring long-term stable revenue streams. 3. RE benefit from hedge at times of low power prices: Ensure consumers also benefit at times of high power prices. 5 Karsten Neuhoff

6 5 Is there a case for continued technology differentiation? Wind and solar PV Fossil fuel based generation and flexibility options Capital costs ~ 80% ~ 30% Main strategic choices New investment decision Location and dimensioning (Re-)investment and retrofit decision Closure Fuel contracting Capacity for government to decide Other aspects High (homogenous technology, competition for entry) RE trajectory required - For grid investment - Supply chain / planning Low (inhomogeneous assets, large incumbent players, information asymmetries) Government choices politically contentious Strategic choices Policy-driven deployment Private sector determined (financed on-balance sheet) 6 Neuhoff, Ruester and Schwenen (2016). Power Market Design beyond 2020: Time to Revisit Key Elements? The Energy Journal Karsten Neuhoff

7 6 Short-term market design open for all technologies: Time frame and platform Hours before real time % forecast error wind Wind & solar Coal & most gas Can & need to adjust close to real time Require early start-up Ensure deep intraday and real-time markets + and consistent day-ahead markets 7 Clearing platforms or auctions are increasingly used in US and Europe for short-term power markets. Neuhoff, Ritter, Salah-Abou-El-Enien, Vassilopoulos(2016) Intraday Markets for Power: Discretizing the Continuous Trading?, DIW Discussion Papers, 1544, Data from Ignacio de la Fuente, Red Eléctrica de España Karsten Neuhoff

8 Respect ramping and start-up constraints of conventional assets 7 Short-term market design open for all technologies: Bid format Multi-part bids can accomodate all needs 8 Increase temporal granularity to ensure system balance and use flexibility of wind and solar Further dimensions that good market design needs to ensure: Effective use of transmission capacity System-wide pooling of reserves Neuhoff, Ruester and Schwenen (2016). Power Market Design beyond 2020: Time to Revisit Key Elements? The Energy Journal Karsten Neuhoff

9 8 Vorteile der Diversifikation durch europäischen EE Ausbau DEU und PL können Synergien in der Erzeugung bergen. Es gilt Balance zu treffen zwischen (i) lokaler Erzeugung (Bürgerbeteiligung, weniger Netze) (ii) besten Standorte (höhere Vollaststunden) (iii) räumliche Verteilung (Systemvorteile)

10 9 Loop Flows bitte berücksichtigen I Wenn Realised Schedules DE AT kleiner als 500 MW ( ) Warum ist keine Interkonnektorkapazität zwischen DE und PL verfügbar? Quelle: Joint study by ČEPS, MAVIR, PSE and SEPS regarding the issue of Unplanned flows in the CEE region in relation to the common market area Germany Austria, January 2013

11 10 Loop Flows bitte berücksichtigen I Wenn Realised Schedules DE AT größer als 3000 MW ( ) Kapazität muss reserviert werden für loop flows und Sicherheitsmargen. Quelle: Joint study by ČEPS, MAVIR, PSE and SEPS regarding the issue of Unplanned flows in the CEE region in relation 11 to the common market area Germany Austria, January 2013

12 11 Die Bedeutung von funktionierenden Strommärkten Erzeugung mit - Biomasse - Gas+CO2 - Kohle+CO2 Nachbarregionen Regionaler Strommarkt Speicher (Management) Nachfrageanpassung (Tage) - Einsparen (HH) - Verschieben (Industrie) Erzeugung mit Wind, Solar, Hydro,... Substitution - Wärmepumpen versus Backup Brennstoffe - Biomasse versus elektrische Heizung Nachfrageanpassung (Stunden) - Elektromobilität - Verschieben von Heizen/Kühlen 12

13 DIW Berlin Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.v. Mohrenstraße 58, Berlin Prof. Karsten Neuhoff, Abteilungskleiter Klimapolitik