Impacts of climate change on European regions

Transkript

1 Dr. Hinnerk Ries Impacts of climate change on European regions Hurup Thy, 4. October 2012

2 Dr. Hinnerk Ries Outline: CSC global regional impacts Hurup Thy, 4. October 2012

3 Impacts of climate change on European regions Climate Service Center Germany interface between climate-related sciences and practice CSC was created as part of the Hightech-Strategy for protection against climate change of the German Federal Government (BMBF) and in the context of the German Adaptation Strategy (2008)

4 Structure of the CSC - preparing climate data for the needs of clients - providing information to customers via products, which are sector-specific and tailored to suit client needs Climate Service in a network of partner institutions

5 Projected climate change Sources of uncertainty / bandwidth internal variability emissions models Quelle: Hawkins and Sutton, 2009

6 Dealing with bandwidthes Source of bandwidth: Consequences for application Models Use of model ensemble Unknown greenhouse gas emissions Use of multiple emission scenarios Climate variability Statistical analysis over at least 30 years, different realizations

7 Bandwidths of Climate Projections Projected changes in annual mean temperature for Egypt based on the IPCC AR4 models

8 Impacts on global scale Food: Large potential decreases in certain crops and locations 8

9 Horizontal grid resolution T42 (~2.5 ) 250 km T106 (~1 ) 110 km 1/2 55 km 1/6 18 km

10 Dynamical Downscaling Domain is only part of the globe Higher grid resolution (down to ~10x10 km²) Forcing over lateral boundaries

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12 New regional IPCC AR5 Scenarios COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment: 12 Domains at 0.44 x 0.44 resolution (~ 50 km x 50 km) Higher resolved simulations for Europe: 0.11 x 0.11 (~ 12 km x 12 km) CSC is contributing to EURO- CORDEX

13 Climate Signal Charts for Europe Decline in summer precipitation [%] Aim: Identification of regions with resistant climate change signals Method: state-of-the-art Ensemble of regional climate projections (~30 simulations) 3-steps restistance test: - Robustness (Agreement in sign, like IPCC) - Significance of change (entity of samples) - Low sensitivity in small shifts of time periods Median of all simulations, non resistant regions in grey 13

14 Climate Signal Charts for Europe Increase in winter precipitation [%] Aim: Identification of regions with resistant climate change signals Method: state-of-the-art Ensemble of regional climate projections (~30 simulations) 3-steps resistance test: - Robustness (Agreement in sign, like IPCC) - Significance of change(entity of samples) - Low sensitivity in small shifts of time periods Median of all simulations, non resistant regions in grey 14

15 extremes Ensemble averaged 30-year mean over yearly number of events exceeding the 90th percentile of raindays in

16 extremes

17 extremes Amount of rain from the 10% heaviest raindays (of the respective period) as fraction of total rain

18 Climate change impact Source: van Vliet et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change

19 Climate change impact Source: van Vliet et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change

20 Source: van Vliet et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change

21 Regionsspezifische Aufbereitung Landkreise und Modellgebiete

22 Bandbreiten Klimaänderung vs , auf der Basis von 9 REMO und 4 CLM Simulationen Temperatur Niederschlag

23 Shift of favourability for Spruce Regional multi-model ensemble Statistical method instead of bias correction Only atmospheric conditions, no velocity, no soil

24 Ice Loading on Electrical Towers CSC Master Thesis (R. Schmitt, 2011): Development of an algorithm to detect ice loading events from regional climate simulations for present and future climate Electrical Tower in Ostthüringen dpa_kreiszeitung.de Electrical Tower close to Münster Sueddeutsche.de Thank you for attention!

25 Shift of favourability for Beech

26 Risikoanalyse Starkregen: eine Methode zwei Städte Synthese: Schadensereignisse nach Ursachen klassifizieren, Wetterereignisse zuordnen Anwendung unterschiedlicher lokaler Verfeinerungs-Verfahren auf die Wasserbilanz-Parameter Verortung der Risiken mit integrativer Gefährdungsanalyse Projektion auf zukünftiges Klima Inklusive Abschätzung der Belastbarkeit Abb.: Dorsch (2003)

27 Schadensanzahl Portfolio: Schäden an Wohngebäuden durch Starkregen CSC: Feasibility study in cooperation with the German Insurance Association (GDV) on the relation between heavy precipitation and damages to residential buildings -Combined assessment of climate and damage data - Economic damage functions - Regional Climate Modeling 180 mitn_bereinigt / Schadensanzahl U+W R² = Niederschlagsmittel 27

28 Verschiebung Verteilungsfunktion Abb.: Dorsch (2003)

29 Source: Alcamo et al. 2007, IPCC AR4.

30 Next generation scenarios for climate change assessment RCP8.5 >8.5 W/m² in 2100 RCP6.0 ~6 W/m² at stabilization after 2100 RCP4.5 ~4.5 W/m² at stabilization RCP 2.6 after 2100 Peak at ~3 W/m² before 2100 and then declines Moss et al., 2010

31 2. Klimamodelle Starkes Wirtschaftswachstum Regionale Wirtschaftsentwicklung Globale Nachhaltigkeit Regionale Nachhaltigkeit 31

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33 Portfolio: Umgang mit dem Klimawandel Minderung Anpassung Klima-Nachhaltigkeit ressourcenschonend? funktionstüchtig? (Infrastruktur, Lebensqualität) Bewertung Gegenwart Verletzlichkeiten kritische Klima-Parameter Components of the person-related energy balance (from Jendritzky, 1990) z.b. Green City Index für Mittelstädte z.b. Gefühlte Temperatur Quelle: Siemens AG