Flexibilisation of Employment in the Globalized and Knowledge- Based Economy?

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1 Matthias Knuth e for Work and Technology Gelsenkirchen, Germany Wissenschaftszentrum Flexibilisation of Employment in the Globalized and Knowledge- Based Economy? 1st Global Labour Forum Globalisation, Technological Change and Decent Work Seoul, June 26 Wuppertal für Arbeit Arbeit

2 Wuppertal für Arbeit High Velocity Labour Market Das bisherige Prinzip, nach dem alle Beschäftigung auf relativer Sicherheit und langfristiger Kalkulierbarkeit beruht, gehört der Vergangenheit an. Auch im Zentrum der Erwerbsgesellschaft reagiert heute das Risikoregime. (Ulrich Beck, Arbeit ist ein bewegliches Ziel; in: Die Zeit 7/2002) The principle of all employment being based on relative security and longterm expectability is now a thing of the past. Today, the risk regime is reigning in the very centre of industrial society. Arbeit 2

3 Wuppertal für Arbeit Good reasons to expect a high velocity labour market globalisation increased competition shorter innovation cycles shorter time to market increased volatility of markets flexible firm flexible employment downsizing + startups smaller establishments fewer degrees of organisational freedom individualisation increasing pluralism of life styles Arbeit 3

4 Wuppertal für Arbeit Restructuring of the German Labour Market *) Hypotheses increasing mobility higher labour turnover rates declining job stability decreasing survival in jobs experience of unemployment becoming more widespread changes between occupations becoming more frequent Arbeit 4 *) Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG German Research Council); statistical analysis by Marcel Erlinghagen

5 5 Wissenschaftszentrum Data: IAB Employment Sample per cent sample of German social insurance registers 80 per cent of total employment is liable to social insurance contributions supplemented with data from unemployment benefit registers employment & unemployment history data on daily basis East German data only available from 1991 excluded Wuppertal für Arbeit Arbeit

6 Wuppertal für Arbeit Entry, Exit & Labour Turnover Rates Entry, exit & labour turnover rates, West Germany 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% Employment June Entry Rate Exit Rate Labour Turnover Rate Linear (Labour Turnover Rate) Employment (millions) Arbeit 6 Sources: IAB Employment Sample ; Federal Employment Agency Employee Panel ; own calculations

7 Wuppertal für Arbeit Survival rates of pooled entry cohorts (EK) and Arbeit 7 Source: IAB Employment Sample ; own calculations

8 Wuppertal für Arbeit Median survival in newly entered jobs (total sample) median survival (in days) year of entering job Arbeit 8 Source: IAB Employment Sample ; own calculations

9 Median survival in newly entered jobs by establishment size, median survival (in days) >=500 employees employees employees 1-19 employees year of entering job Wuppertal für Arbeit Arbeit 9 Source: IAB Employment Sample ; own calculations

10 median survival (in days) Wissenschaftszentrum Median survival in newly entered jobs by level of vocational education, academic degree certified vocational qualification without vocational qualification Wuppertal für Arbeit Arbeit 10 Source: IAB Employment Sample ; own calculations

11 Wuppertal für Arbeit Survival rates in industries shaping public opinion Churches, Religious and Philosophical Organisations Political Parties, Independent Charities, Non-profit Organisations Arbeit 11

12 Wuppertal für Arbeit 12 Dimensions of firms flexibility internal external quantitative (numerical) working time intensity of work hiring and firing layoffs and recalls fixed-term contracts temporary agency work distribution of working time redeployment and retraining multi-skilling /-tasking delegation of responsibilities networking qualitative (functional) Arbeit high performance work organisation

13 13 Most fundamental changes Wissenschaftszentrum occurring inside, not outside tendency towards shorter hours reversed, most markedly for the highly skilled boundaries between work and private life blurring increasing complexity, responsibility and simultaneousness contingency of the labour contract shifted on workers shoulders mental stress and disorders on the rise stable employment feeling secure insider efficiency has its price, too Wuppertal für Arbeit Arbeit

14 Wuppertal für Arbeit Concept of decent work to be expanded: sustainability (physical, mental, moral) throughout the lifetime a given society considers and frames as employable age work-life-balance : ability to act as a responsible partner/spouse parent citizen Arbeit 14

15 Decent work challenge in the globalised and ageing knowledge society traditional concepts of regulation and collective representation difficult to apply Wuppertal für Arbeit Arbeit 15

16 Wuppertal für Arbeit Thank You for Your Attention! Arbeit 16