Interpreting multiple environmental tracer data with a groundwater model in a perialpine catchment
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1 Research Collection Doctoral Thesis Interpreting multiple environmental tracer data with a groundwater model in a perialpine catchment Author(s): Onnis, Giorgio Amsicora Publication Date: 2008 Permanent Link: Rights / License: In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted This page was generated automatically upon download from the ETH Zurich Research Collection. For more information please consult the Terms of use. ETH Library
2 Diss. ETH No Interpreting Multiple Environmental Tracer Data with a Groundwater Model in a Perialpine Catchment A dissertation submitted to the SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ZÜRICH for the degree of Doctor of Science presented by Giorgio Amsicora Onnis Dipl. Phys. Universitá degli Studi di Milano born on November 7, 1975 citizen of Italy accepted on the recommendation of Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Kinzelbach, examiner Prof. Dr. Rainer Helmig, co-examiner Prof. Dr. Rolf Kipfer, co-examiner Prof. Dr. Fritz Stauffer, co-examiner 2008
3 Abstract Environmental tracers are isotopic and chemical compounds which have been increasingly used in hydrological sciences to investigate the water cycle. Early studies in the seventies demonstrated the potential of environmental tracers also in groundwater investigations in providing information about groundwater age, travel times, streamline information, ratio of fluxes and recharge rates. Compared to artificial tracer tests over short time scales, transient environmental tracers released into the atmosphere since the early fifties provide a tool to investigate the groundwater flow and transport over time scales of up to 50 years. A case study for the environmental tracers Tritium ( 3 H), Helium-3 (decay product of 3 H) and Krypton-85 in a small catchment in Northern Switzerland, near Baltenswil, is presented. It contains a sandy-gravel aquifer with groundwater residence times of two to fifteen years. Its small size (9 square kilometers) and its hydrogeology being well known, thanks to former groundwater investigations and local artificial tracer test campaigns, make this aquifer an excellent test site for environmental tracer modeling. During the years 2003 to 2006 a new sampling campaign, undertaken by EAWAG Dübendorf and IPB Bern for the present study, provided a new set of Tritium, Helium-3 and Krypton-85 data. In particular, Krypton-85 data show at some locations significant variations on a seasonal timescale without an apparent trend. Integrating the information coming from different tracers into a groundwater modeling effort is the main intention of this thesis. Following a method from Gomez-Hernandez (1991), the transmissivity field is stochastically modeled. The groundwater flow model is identified by means of Stochastic Inverse Modeling in a transient regime. Available transient hydraulic head data together with local measurement of transmissivities (T) are used for calibration of the T-field, performed with the code INVERTO (Hendricks-Franssen, 2001). The evaluation of the aquifer recharge by precipitation and discharge via drains (natural springs) is performed through comparison of the calculated and measured time-varying hydraulic heads after the inversion procedure. Despite a complete lack of knowledge about the aquifer s natural discharge rates, a fair reproduction of the observed water table variations for the last ten years is obtained. Stochastic inverse modeling allows a reliable estimate of the water budget of the aquifer system and selecting the ensemble of possible T-fields governing the real but unknown transient flow field. A number of equally-likely T-realizations honoring both T and time-varying head measurements are generated. The calibrated T-fields share common pattern features. Considering an ensemble of T-realizations, vii
4 which reproduce the head measurements, allows setting the calibration problem into the framework of uncertainty assessment of predictions. Following a study from Cook and Solomon (1995), the impact of the spatially-variable, thick unsaturated zone (> 10 m) is investigated by means of a numerical solution to the vertical advection-dispersion equation (ADE). The environmental tracers pass the unsaturated zone either advectively ( 3 H), or by diffusion ( 3 He and 85 Kr). Starting from the more or less known tracer concentrations in the atmosphere, a numerical solution of the vertical ADE in an unsaturated homogeneous porous medium is used to calculate the tracer input to the saturated zone at different groundwater table depths. Sensitivity analysis shows that the gas-phase effective diffusion coefficients (including physically related quantities such as gas-phase tortuosity and saturation conditions) and the measured atmospheric tracer input function are the most sensitive parameters with respect to the tracer concentrations at depth. The behavior of environmental tracers in the saturated zone is investigated by using selected calibrated T-fields as input into a deterministic transport model and by making use of the tracer input history calculated at the groundwater table. Effects of tracer transport in the saturated zone at the observation locations are simulated via the module MT3DMS (Zheng, 1990) in Processing Modflow (Chiang and Kinzelbach, 2001) for each transmissivity realization. The transport simulation results are in general fair and can well reproduce the tracer data at most observation locations. However, the model can account for only 20% of the amplitude of the high-frequency oscillations in Krypton- 85 concentrations observed at the pumping station Baltenswil. A range of possible alternative explanations are sought and analyzed for this unusual behavior of Krypton-85 data. Short term variations of the recharge rate (three days) and of the actual pumping rate (over one day) can account for a further 10% each of the concentration fluctuations amplitudes. Older water components are identified possibly coming from the unsaturated hilly boundary of the domain. Tritium data are also fairly well reproduced by model simulations. Daughter-product Helium-3 simulations instead largely overestimate the observed concentrations at most locations. Helium-3 loss mechanisms are therefore investigated to account for the model/data discrepancy. In particular, the model implementation of Helium-3 back-diffusion to the atmosphere via the groundwater table significantly reduces the above-mentioned discrepancy of up to 70%. Differential diffusion of Helium-3 in less permeable soil lenses is also implemented but does not bring the desired reduction, due to the nearly steady-state of Tritium and Helium-3 concentrations established in the groundwater in the last five and more years. This result is found in agreement with Labolle and Fogg (2001). viii
5 Transmissivity does not play the expected primary role in determining the fate of tracers due to the small ratio between the groundwater residence times and the travel times in the unsaturated zone. Other parameters have a larger impact on uncertainty of tracer simulated time series in the groundwater: effective diffusion coefficient, atmospheric input function and saturated porosity. Local knowledge of these parameters is, although difficult to obtain, highly desirable, in order to reduce the associated uncertainty on model predictions. Environmental tracers can contribute to uncertainty mitigation by updating of the conceptual model following experimental evidence (Helium-3). They can provide additional information about the possible origin of water samples (Krypton- 85). They can offer a useful validity cross-check (Tritium). In particular, gas tracers will be most useful in aquifers where groundwater residence times are larger than the travel times in the vadose zone. A combination of several tracers may make their application to groundwater investigations more reliable. Their integrated use allows separating the focus on different phenomena in the subsurface dynamics and provides information on water movement at different spatial and temporal scales. Especially in areas with spatially variable unsaturated zone thickness, this can only come at the price of new sources of uncertainty on the transport-related parameters. Finally, the chosen stochastic approach has the considerable advantage of naturally including the quantification of uncertainty in the model predictions. ix
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7 Zusammenfassung Umwelttracer sind isotopische und chemische Substanzen, die in den Hydrowissenschaften verbreitet eingesetzt werden, um den Wasserkreislauf zu erforschen. Frühere Studien der siebziger Jahre haben das Potential aufgezeigt, Umwelttracer auch in der Grundwasserforschung anzuwenden. Somit können Informationen über das Alter des Grundwassers, die Fliesszeit, Stromlinien sowie über das Verhältnis von Abfluss und Grundwasserneubildung gewonnen werden. Im Vergleich zu künstlichen Tracern werden transiente Umwelttracer seit den frühen 50er-Jahren in die Atmosphäre abgegeben. Somit stellen sie ein wertvolles Werkzeug dar, um Grundwasserströmung und Transport über die letzten 50 Jahre zu erforschen. Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit einer Fallstudie über die Verwendung von Daten über die Umwelttracer Tritium ( 3 H), Helium-3 (Zerfallsprodukt von 3 H) und Krypton-85 in einem kleinen Brunneneinzugsgebiet der Schweiz, in Baltenswil bei Zürich. Das Einzugsgebiet umfasst einen sandig-kiesigen Aquifer mit einer Aufenthaltszeit von zwei bis fünf Jahren im Grundwasser. Die Hydrogeologie des Einzugsgebietes ist dank vorhergehender hydrogeologischer Studien und lokaler Experimente mit künstlichen Tracern gut bekannt. Dadurch und auf Grund der geringen Grösse des Einzugsgebiets von 9 km 2 ist dieser Aquifer sehr gut als Testgebiet für die Modellierung von Umwelttracern geeignet. Während der Jahre 2003 und 2006 wurde für die vorliegende Studie eine Kampagne mit Probenahme zur Messung von Tritium-, Helium-3 und Krypton-85 Konzentrationen von der EAWAG Dübendorf und dem IPB Bern durchgeführt. Vor allem Krypton-85 zeigte dabei an verschiedenen Standorten signifikante kurzzeitliche Variationen ohne sichtbaren Trend hinsichtlich der saisonalen Zeitskala. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, Informationen der verschiedenen Tracer in ein Grundwassermodell zu integrieren, damit dieses dadurch verbessert werden kann. Die Transmissivitätswerte des Aquifers werden nach der Methode von Gomez- Hernandez (1991) stochastisch modelliert. Das Grundwassermodell wird mit einer stochastisch-inversen Methode kalibriert. Verfügbare zeitabhängige Daten der piezometrischen Höhe werden zusammen mit lokalen Messungen der Transmissivität (T) für die Kalibrierung des T-Feldes verwendet. Für die Umsetzung wird der Code INVERTO (Hendricks-Franssen, 2001) verwendet. Die Grundwasserneubildung wird durch Niederschlagsdaten und des Abflusses durch Drainagen unter Berücksichtigung der zeitlich variierenden berechneten und gemessenen hydraulischen Höhen nach der Inversionsprozedur ermittelt. Obwohl Informationen über die natürliche Abflussrate xi
8 des Aquifers fehlen, kann die Variation der beobachteten Wasserstände über die letzten zehn Jahre relativ gut reproduziert werden. Die stochastisch-inverse Modellierung erlaubt zum einen, eine verlässliche Abschätzung der Wasserbilanz des Aquifers und zum anderen die Auswahl des Ensembles möglicher T-Felder, welche die instationäre Strömung dominieren. Eine Vielzahl von T-Realisationen gleicher Wahrscheinlichkeit, welche die gemessenen T und die zeitlich variierenden Messungen der piezometrischen Höhe berücksichtigen, wurde generiert. Die kalibrierten T- Felder zeigen übliche Verteilungsmuster. Mit der verwendeten Methode erlaubt die Kalibrierung auch eine Beurteilung der Unsicherheit von Vorhersagen. Der Einfluss des räumlich variablen mächtigen ungesättigten Bereichs (> 10m) wird analog zu Cook und Solomon (1995) mit Hilfe einer numerischen Lösung der vertikalen Advektions-Dispersionsgleichung (ADE) untersucht. Die Umwelttracer passieren die ungesättigte Zone entweder durch Advektion ( 3 H) oder durch Diffusion ( 3 He und 85 Kr). Ausgehend von mehr oder weniger gut bekannten Tracerkonzentrationen in der Atmosphäre wird die numerische Lösung der vertikalen ADE dazu verwendet, den Tracereintrag in die gesättigte Zone für verschiedene Grundwasserstände zu berechnen. Sensitivitätsanalysen zeigen, dass der effektive Diffusionskoeffizient für die Gasphase (enthält physikalisch relevante Eigenschaften wie Tortuosität und Sättigungsgrad) und der gemessene atmosphärische Tracerinput die sensitivsten Parameter in Bezug auf die Verteilung der Tracerkonzentration über die Tiefe sind. Das Verhalten von Umwelttracern in der gesättigten Zone wird einerseits durch die Verwendung ausgewählter kalibrierter T-Felder für die Strömung als Eingangsgrösse in ein deterministisches Transportmodel und andererseits durch den berechneten Tracerinput beim Grundwasserspiegel untersucht. Auswirkungen des Tracertransports in der gesättigten Zone in den Beobachtungspunkten wird mit dem Modul MT3DMS (Zheng, 1990) in Processing Modflow (Chiang und Kinzelbach, 2001) für jedes Transmissivitätsfeld simuliert. Die Resultate der Transportsimulation sind im Allgemeinen befriedigend und werden von den Tracerdaten für die meisten Beobachtungsorte gut reproduziert. Das Model kann allerdings nur 20% der Amplituden der beobachteten hochfrequenten Oszillationen der beobachteten Krypton-85-Konzentrationen bei der Pumpstation Baltenswil erklären. Mögliche Erklärungen für dieses Verhalten der Krypton-85 Daten werden gesucht und analysiert. Kurzfristige Variationen der Abflussrate (drei Tage) und der aktuellen Pumprate (über ein Tag) können jeweils etwa 10% der Amplitude der Konzentrationsfluktuationen erklären. Komponenten von älterem Wasser stammen möglicherweise vom ungesättigten Teil aus dem Randbereich des Aquifers. Die Tritiumdaten werden durch die Modellsimulation sehr gut reproduziert. Im Gegensatz dazu überschätzt das Model die Helium-3-Konzentrationen an xii
9 den meisten Beobachtungsorten. Die Diskrepanzen können auf mögliche Helium-3- Verluste zurückgeführt werden. Besonders die Implementierung der Helium-3-Diffusion via Grundwasserspiegel in die Atmosphäre reduziert die erwähnten Diskrepanzen um bis zu 70%. Im Model wurde ebenfalls die differentielle Diffusion von Helium-3 durch weniger durchlässige Bodenschichten untersucht. Wegen der nahezu stationären Tritium- und Helium-3-Konzentrationen in den letzten fünf Jahren und mehr, bringt dieser Mechanismus allerdings nicht die erwünschte Verbesserung. Diese Feststellung lässt sich mit Labolle und Fogg (2001) bestätigen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde festgestellt, dass auf Grund des geringen Verhältnisses zwischen Grundwasseraufenthaltszeit und Fliesszeit in der ungesättigten Zone, die Transmissivität nicht die erwartete dominante Funktion bezüglich des Tracertransports aufweist. Andere Parameter wie der effektive Diffusionskoeffizient in der ungesättigten Zone, die atmosphärische Tracerinputfunktion und die Porosität haben einen wesentlich höheren Einfluss auf die Unsicherheit innerhalb des simulierten Zeitabschnitts. Auch wenn die entsprechenden Parameter lokal schwierig zu bestimmen sind, sind die gewonnen Erkenntnisse unabdingbar, um die Unsicherheiten in den Modellvorhersagen einzuschätzen und reduzieren zu können. Umwelttracer können so zur Verringerung der Unsicherheiten in den konzeptionellen Modellen beitragen (Helium-3). Sie liefern zusätzliche Informationen über die mögliche Herkunft des Wassers (Krypton-85). Weiterhin stellen sie ein nützliches Instrument für eine Cross- Check-Validierung des Modells dar (Tritium). Gastracer sind besonders wertvoll in Aquifersystemen, bei denen die Aufenthaltszeit in der ungesättigten Zone grösser ist als die Fliesszeit im Aquifer. Auf Grund der verschiedenen atmosphärischen Tracer- Inputfunktionen und den Transportmechanismen in der ungesättigten und gesättigten Zone kann eine Kombination verschiedener Tracer die Glaubwürdigkeit des Modells erhöhen. Das Einbinden von Umwelttracerdaten erlaubt zudem eine separate Fokussierung auf unterschiedliche Phänomene in der Dynamik von Strömung und Transport und liefert Information über verschiedenen Raum- und Zeitskalen. Besonders in Gebieten mit stark räumlich variierender Mächtigkeit der ungesättigten Zone ist dies mit erhöhter Unsicherheit in den Transportparameter verknüpft. Die gewählte Methode mit dem stochastischen Ansatz hat den wichtigen Vorteil, die Unsicherheiten in den Modellvorhersagen zu quantifizieren. xiii
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