Globale Aspekte des Klimawandels

Transkript

1 1 9. Zittauer Umweltsymposium 18. Und 19. April 2007, Bautzen Globale Aspekte des Klimawandels Bernd Delakowitz und Anke Zenker-Hoffmann

2 2 Quellen IPCC: UNEP-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policymakers Part 1 (Feb. 2007): Part 2 (13 April 2007): Part 3 (May 2007): Scientific Basis Consequences Options Stern-Review Review: : Sir Nicholas Stern (former( world bank chief economist) Economic consequences of CC (Nov. 2006) Prof. Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

3 3 1. Weltbevölkerungswachstum, lkerungswachstum, Energiebedarf 2. Anthropogener Einfluss auf das Klimageschehen 3. Ökonomische Konsequenzen und nationale Sicherheitsaspekte durch globale Klimaveränderungen 4. Politische Instrumente für f r den Klimaschutz

4 4 1. Weltbevölkerungswachstum, lkerungswachstum, globaler Energiebedarf

5 5 Global Population: (13 April 2007) Zuwachs der Weltbevölkerung: pro Jahr: Menschen Die Weltbevölkerungsuhr lkerungsuhr zählt z pro Sekunde 2,6 Menschen dazu. pro Monat: Menschen pro Woche: Menschen pro Tag: Menschen pro Stunde: Menschen pro Minute: 153 Menschen pro Sekunde: 2,6 Menschen

6 6 IPCC-Szenarien (2007) Szenarien-Familien A1 A2 B1 B2 Globalisierung - sehr starkes Wirtschaftswachstum; Populationsmaximum ca. 8,7 Mrd. etwa um 2050, danach abnehmend; schnelle Einführung innovativer und effizienter Technologien (foss( foss.. ET ca. 33%, Zero-Carbon ca. 19%) Individualität: t: sehr heterogene Welt mit Erhalt lokaler Identitäten; ten; kontinuierl. ansteigende Weltbevölkerung lkerung (ca. 11 Mrd. um 2050); regional orientiertes, langsames Wirtschaftswachstum / techn.. Innovationen (foss( foss.. ET ca. 30%, Zero-Carbon ca. 18%) Nachhaltigkeit: Populationsmaximum wie A1 aber schneller Wechsel ökonomischer Strukturen in Richtung DL- und IT-Gesellschaften, dadurch Reduzierung der Materialintensitäten; ten; Einführung sauberer und effizienter Technologien (foss( foss.. ET ca. 21%, Zero-Carbon ca. 30%) Lokale, umweltschutzorientierte Lösungen: L kontinuierliche, aber langsamer als A2 ansteigende Weltbevölkerung lkerung (ca. 9,3 Mrd. um 2050); mittleres Wirtschaftswachstum; langsamerer und unheitlicher Technologiewechsel; Fokussierung auf Umweltschutz und soziale Gerechtigkeit jedoch auf lokalem Niveau (foss( foss.. ET ca. 10%, Zero- Carbon ca. 30%)

7 7 Global Energy Consumption - Two Scenarios Exajoule / Year Source: IPCC; Royal Dutch / SHELL Population [Billions] 5.2 9,5 GDP p.a. in 10 3 $ Gigatons HCU (1 HCU = 29.4 MJ) Moderate economic growth (B2/A2) De-materialization Optimized Resource Efficiency (B1/B2)

8 8 Exajoules 1500 Global Energy Consumption Until 2060 Scenario: Moderate Economic Growth (A2/B2) unknown Renewable Energies Geo- / Oceanic Energy exa = Exajoule = 34,12 Mio t HCU Source: Royal Dutch / SHELL Solar New Biomasses Wind Energy Water Trad. Biomasses Nuclear Natural Gas Mineral Oil Coal

9 9 2. Anthropogener Einfluss auf das Klimageschehen

10 10 Natural Impacts On Climate Change Variations in the energy output of the sun Variations in the earth s s orbit and tilt Continental drift (geological time scale!) Changes in atmospheric composition caused by volcanoes, biological activity, weathering of rocks, etc. others

11 11 The Natural Greenhouse Effect Without natural greenhouse gases (such as H 2 O soil moisture,, CO 2, methane etc.) the average global temperature would be minus 18 C - life on the planet would not have been possible Because of natural greenhouse gases the average global temperature varies within a comfortable plus 13 to plus 15 degree centigrade

12 12 Anthropogenic Impacts On Climate Change Emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) as a result of deforestation, agricultural practices, fossil-fuel fuel burning (transportation, industry, ) Emission of particulate matter from agricultural burning (rain forests), cultivation, fossil-fuel fuel burning, Alteration of earth s s surface reflectivity by deforestation, desertification Cloud formation by aircraft contrails others

13 13 Global Ocean Thermohaline Conveyor Belt Global Transportation System for Energy Trough Ocean Currents Reasons: incident solar radiation rotation of the earth water temperature salt content

14 14 Anthropogenic Impacts On CC: Sources Satelite image of the North Atlantic: Industrial gases & emissions impact the thermohaline conveyor belt (North Atlantic Gulf Stream )

15 15 Anthropogenic Impacts On CC: Sources

18 18 Anthropogenic Impacts On CC: Greenhouse Gas Emitters

19 19 CO 2 CH 4

20 20 Predictions of Global CO 2 -Emissions based on IPCC-Scenario Scenario-Families A1 B2

21 21 CO CO 2 - Concentration in the atmosphere (ppm) is currently (2005) the highest in years (IPCC y; S. Rahmstorf y) (Source: UNEP/Grid Arendal - vital climate graphics) A.D. Range of various IPCC- scenarios up to 2100 Current concentration

22 22 Examples Of Evidence

23 23 Examples Of Evidence - The The Hockey Stick Curve Tempertaure in the Northern Hemishere; ; uncertainty band in grey Actualized by S. Rahmstorf 2006

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25 25 Examples Of Evidence Temp in the 10 years 1996 to 2005 were the highest in record

28 28 Examples Of Evidence Bleached coral head

29 29 Examples Of Evidence Huge alge blossom at the west Canadian shelf region during summer 2006

31 31 Examples Of Evidences Pictures from Weesenstein, Saxony: The so called Century Flood August 2002 in Germany August, 2002 August, 2003

32 32 Examples Of Evidences The Jiliang river bed, China Desertification, Cuba

33 33 Examples Of Evidences Between 1970 and 2000 approx km 2 of artic ice were melting - an equivalent of the size of France plus Spain

34 34 Examples Of Evidences Glaciers in the Bavarian Alps are predicted to de disapeared by 2025 The Zugspitze Glacier is losing up to 10 cm daily during summer (= 35 Mio L melting water per day)

35 35 Global, annual-mean radiative forcings (Wm²)

36 36 Temperature Predictions (S. Rahmstorf: CC Fact Sheets 2006, IPCC 2007) CO 2 -Predictions (IPCC)

37 37 IPCC (4 th Assessment Report 2007) The mean global temperature has risen by 0,8 ± 0,2 C since 1861 The increase of temperature correlates with the increase of atmospheric CO 2 -concentration: 260 ppm (1860), 380 ppm (2005) The mean global temperature rise until 2100 is predicted between 1,4 and 6,4 C

38 38 IPCC (4 th Assessment Report 2007) Snow covering on the northern hemisphere has decreased since 1960 by 10% Attitude of permanent snowfall in the Alps will shift approx m to ca above sea level Annual absolute global CO 2 -emissions in 2100: 4,0 to > 20 Bill t (relative CO 2 -conc. in 2100 [ppm[ ppm]: Estimated sea level rising until 2100 will be between 20 and 70 cm

39 39 3. Economic Consequences and Implications on National Securities from Global CC

40 40 Economic Consequences of Climate Change Münchner Rück R Insurance (2003), IPCC (2007), STERN REVIEW (2006) Economic losses in 2005 caused by extreme weather events and natural catastrophes approx Bill. US $ Up to 20% of global GDP likely to be lost due to climatic events. Global response, actions and policies are urgently needed to outweigh the economic losses. Expected annual cost of emission reductions (stabili- sation at ca. 450 ppm CO 2 by 2050) is likely to be 1% of each country s national GDP (e.g. GER ca. 2,5 Bill p.a.)

41 41 Negative CC Impacts on Transition Countries Example: Coffee growing in Uganda now (left)) and at 2 C higher (right) Klimawandel zerstört Entwicklung Quelle: Simonett: Potential Impacts of global warming, GRID-Geneva, case studies on climate change. Geneva, 1998.

42 42 Abrupt CC Implications on National Securities Sources: P. Schwartz & D. Randall, Report to the Pentagon, October 2003 S. Rahmsdorf (PIK) 1. Gradual global warming could lead to abrupt slowing of the ocean s thermohaline conveyor such as the collapse 8,200 years ago 2. Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees F. in northern Europe 3. Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees F. in key areas throughout Australia, South America and southern Africa 4. Significant food shortage due to the decrease in net global agricultural production and high population growth - intensive migration - terrorism potential

43 43 4. Instruments and Policies for Climate Protection

44 44 Determinants of Emissions GDP per person Energy intensity of GDP Carbon intensity of energy supply Options for reduction Technical means Political means

45 45 Technical Means Options Improved efficiency of energy end-use in buildings, transportation,, & industry Increased efficiency of conversion of fossil fuels to end-use energy forms Capturing & sequestering carbon when fossil fuels are transformed or used Increased employment of renewable & nuclear energy options

46 46 Options Political Means: Global and National Climate Kyoto Protocol 10 December 1997 Climate Protection Policy International action to reduce the emissions of 6 GH gases responsible for global warming Minus 5% CO 2 between 2008 until 2012 compared to 1990 Became effective on 16 February 2005 October 2006: > 150 nations have signed, approx. 70% GHG USA, Australia did not sign (ca. 30% GHG emissions)

47 47 Kyoto Mechanismen Joint Implementation (JI): Compensation and reduction actions amongst appendix A countries (industrialized countries) Clean Development Mechanismn (CDM): Compensation and reduction actions between industrialized and transformation countries Emission Trading: Starting 2005 (first( phase) within the European Union (25 member states) based on national allocation plans

48 48 Emission Trading Germany 2005: enterprises,, EU: enterprises

49 49 Zusammenfassung 1. Verbesserte Kommunikation der bereits eingesetzten globalen Klimaveränderungen und Darstellung erwarteter Konsequenzen (Wetterextreme, Verschiebung landwirtschaftl. Produktion, Migrationsbewegungen...) 2. Intensivierung und Ausweitung vorhandener Klimaschutz- Instrumente wie z.b. Emissionsrechtehandel, Energieeffizienz- Maßnahmen usw. auf globaler Basis 3. Konzertierte, internat. abgestimmte Aktionen zur Begrenzung der Klimaveränderungen bei max. 2 C (ca. 450 ppm CO 2 ) bezogen auf das präindustrielle Niveau - nur erreichbar, wenn globale CO 2 - Emissionen bis 2050 etwa halbiert werden 2050 (Kosten 1% BIP p.a)

50 50 Zusammenfassung 4. Verbesserte Klimamodelle zur Vorhersage verfeinerter Szenarien wie und wo Klimaveränderungen auftreten und sich auswirken 5. Verbesserte Prognosen welche Länder am stärksten betroffen sind bzw. sein werden und die daraus resultierenden ökonomisch-sozialen Konsequenzen bezüglich Demografie und/oder potenzieller Aggressionen (Terrorismus) 6. Strategien für optimiertes Wassermanagement und geotechnische Optionen zur Minderung ökonomischer Schäden durch Klimaveränderungen 7. Optimierte Katastrophenvorsorge im Klimawandel

51 51... it s not too late and it s worth

52 52 Web-Links (UNEP: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) potsdam.de/~stefanstefan (Prof. Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf) (Global Provider on Carbon) (Climate Science from Climate Scientists) treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_ te_ change/stern_review_report.cfm (Sir N. Stern, STERN Review) (German Advisory Council on Climate Change)

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