Internationale Perspektiven post-fukushima: Atomausstieg und Umstieg auf intelligente Energiesysteme Mycle Schneider Internationaler Berater für Energie- und Atompolitik, Paris, France 11. Regionaler Klimagipfel, Universität Trier, 9. Dezember 2011 Contact: mycle@orange.fr
35 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1956 to 1 December 2011 30 25 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown 20 15 10 5 0 1956 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011
GWe 400 350 300 250 200 Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 December 2011 Reactors in operation 322 GWe 424 reactors 444 reactors Number of Reactors 359 GWe 500 427 reactors 450 400 350 300 250 150 100 50 200 150 100 50 0 0 1954 1960 1970 1980 1989 1990 2000 2002 2010 2011 Operable capacity Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011
16 14 12 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU27 in Units, from 1956 to 1 December 2011 10 8 6 4 2 0 1956 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011
GWe 160 Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the EU27 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 December 2011 126 GWe 177 reactors 169 reactors 123 GWe 134 reactors Number of Reactors 200 180 160 120 140 Reactors in Operation Operable Capacity 120 80 100 80 60 40 40 20 0 0 1956 1960 1970 1980 1988 1990 1999 2000 2010 2011 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011
TWh 900 800 700 600 500 400 TWh Generation of Nuclear Electricity in the World in 2010 (net TWh) Total World 2,630 TWh 300 200 100 0 United States France Japan Russia South Korea Germany Canada Ukraine China Spain United Kingdom Sweden Belgium Taiwan Czech Republic Switzerland Finland India Hungary Bulgaria Brazil Slovakia South Africa Romania Argentina Mexico Slovenia Netherlands Pakistan Armenia Source: IAEA-PRIS, 2011
45 Age of 437 Reactors in Operation in the World as of 1 April 2011 40 38! 35 Number of Reactors 30 25 20 Mean Age 26 Years 22! 23! 19! 26! 22! 23! 20! 15 10 7! 6! 11! 15! 9! 12! 15! 13! 14! 15! 12! 10! 11!11! 9! 6! 5 2! 3! 2! 4! 4! 4! 5! 6! 2! 4! 4! 5! 6! 3! 4! 4! 4! 2! 0 0 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011
250 Number of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction" by year, 1954-1 December 2011 225 200 Number of Reactors 175 150 125 100 75 Cancelled or Suspended Projects! Completed and Ongoing Projects! 50 25 0 1954 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011
Reactors «Under Construction» in the World (1 December 2011) Country Units MWe (net) Construction Start Grid Connection China 27 27,230 2005-2010 2011-? Russia 10 8,203 1985-2010 2011-? India 6 4,194 2002-2004 2011-2015 South-Korea 5 5,560 2006-2008 2011-2013 Bulgaria 2 1,906 1987 2014-2015 Japan 2 2,650 2004-2010 2011-2014 Slovakia 2 782 1985 2012-2013 Taiwan 2 2,600 1999 2011-2012 Ukraine 2 1,900 1986-1987 2015-2016 Argentina 1 692 1981 2012 Brazil 1 1,245 2010 2018 Finland 1 1,600 2005 2014? France 1 1,600 2007 2014? Pakistan 1 315 2011 2016 USA 1 1,165 1972 2012 Total 64 61,642 1972-2011 2011-2018! Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2011
Technology Learning Curves Source: Cooper 2010
Negative Learning Curve US Nuclear Reactors Source: Cooper 2010
Negative Learning Curve of French PWRs Source: Arnulf Grübler, «An assessment of the costs of the French nuclear PWR program 1970 2000», 6 October 2009
Source: Greenpeace Finland 2011
Excessive Lead Times/Cost Overruns: Example Olkiluoto-3, Finland 1998-1999 TVO submits environmental impact assessment report. 2005 First concrete in August. 2006 Project running 18 months late. 2007 Project running 24 months late. 2008 Project running at least 36 months late. 2010 Project running at least 42 months late 2011 Project running about 54 months late 2014 Start-up? Lead Time: at least 15-16 years since EIA Official Price: ~ 3 Billion (Guaranteed Fix Price) Cost Overrun at 6 Years after Construction Start: ~ 3.5 Billion (90%) New provisions likely (October 2011) Estimated Total: ~ 6.6 Billion or ~$8.8 Billion Sources: Various, compiled by MSC
Changes in Credit Rating of 48 US Nuclear Utilities Moody s is considering applying a more negative view for issuers that are actively pursuing new nuclear generation. Source: Moody s, New Nuclear Generation: Ratings Pressure Increasing, 2009
Französische Staatskonzerne in Schwierigkeiten EDF Aktienwert abgestürzt, seit 2007 um 78% hohe Verschuldung (29,2 Mrd. ) AREVA Aktienwert abgestürzt, seit 2007 um 72% Standard & Poor s stuft Stand Alone Credit Profile (SACP) herunter auf BB+ («junk bond») Sources: Company websites; Standard & Poor s, 15 April 2011 Nancy, 29 novembre 2011
Annual New Clean Energy Investment by Asset Class 2004-2010 Source: Bloomberg/Deutsche Bank, 2 May 2011
Sources: Amory Lovins, 2010; Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind Energy Report 2010 (Brussels: 2001); IAEA, PRIS database; European Photovoltaic Industry Association, Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014 (Brussels: May 2010)
New Wind Power vs. New Nuclear Capacity 2001-2010 In 2010 the world has installed more than 50% more new wind capacity (38.3 GW), than nuclear capacity over the entire last decade (26.1 GW).
Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011
Source: EWEA 2011
Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (1) Japan Tiefes kollektives Trauma. Hamaoka, Fukushima-Daini. Aufgabe der Neubauprojekte. Reorganisation der Atomaufsicht. Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz (26. August 2011). Gründung der Japan Renewable Energy Foundation (September 2011) durch Masayoshi SON, Chef von SoftBank, Japans reichster Mann. Die kommende energiepolitische Reform könnte so bedeutend oder noch bedeutender sein als die Reformen, die auf die erste und zweite Ölkrise folgten. Ken Koyama Geschäftsführer Japan Institute of Energy Economics 3. Oktober 2011
Japan nach Fukushima Im November 2011 noch 11 der 54 Vor- Fukushima Reaktoren in Betrieb. ( Am 9. Dezember 2011 nur 8 Reaktoren übrig.) Operating Shut Down After Earthquakes Shut Down For Refueling/Maintenance Sources: Mainichi, CNIC, Green-Action November 2011
Windpower Plants in Earthquake- Affected Areas 35 Sites 190 Turbines 270 MW in 5 Prefectures 2 Sites 37 Turbines <30 km Fukushima Damage Serious Impact on Power Lines but only 1 Slightly Leaning Turbine Sources: JWEA, JWPA, 12 August 2011
Spectacular Demand Reduction: TEPCO 1st Semester 2011 vs. 2010 60 Demand GW 50 62GW (TEPCO supply capacity incl. pumped storage) 52GW (TEPCO supply capacity excl. pumped storage) 40 30 2010 20 1st Sem. 2011 10 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Hours Source: TEPCO, ISEP 2011
Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (2) China Einfrieren der Genehmigungen für neue Projekte Sicherheitsüberprüfung (in Betrieb/im Bau) Betriebsaufnahme neuer Reaktor am 3. Mai 2011. Aufgabe der CPR1000 Serie (Sommer 2011)? Beschleunigung der Erneuerbaren Energien. Verdoppelung Ziel PV von 5 GW auf 10 GW in 2015.
Sources: IAEA-PRIS, 2011; GWEC 2011; Chinese 12th Five-Year Plan; media reports
Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (3) United States President Obama / Minister Chu nuclear has an important role to play in our energy mix. Senator Liebermann: kind of quietly, quickly put the brakes on until we can absorb what happened in Japan. NRG, main shareholder of South Texas Project (2 new reactors), has abandoned project (loss $481 million). HSBC (London): US public may find it difficult to support major nuclear new build and we expect that no new plant extensions will be granted either.
Beispiel US Militär Off-Grid and Micro-Grid power next Big Thing for US military (todaysdefense.com) On 8 August 2011 Boeing and Siemens (entirely abandoning nuclear) announced strategic alliance to develop micro-grid systems that reduce costs and increase efficiency. The alliance s micro-grid management solution will be designed to: - implement economical energy-efficiency tools that allow for analysis, control and automation of energy processes - use smart energy controls to provide real-time data to manage energy use - integrate renewable energy sources and storage. In 2009 General Electric launched smart grid at Twentynine Palms Base, California, the world s largest Marine Corps Base, to optimize power generation and storage and to enhance capacities to use renewables. Sources: Siemens, Press Release, 8 August 2011, INTECH, 14 July 2009
Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (4) Frankreich Regierung weiterhin auf Atomkurs. Chef Atomaufsicht: Niemand kann je garantieren, dass es in Frankreich niemals zu einem schwerwiegenden Unfall kommen wird. (OECD, Paris, 8 June 2011) Erhebliche Nachbesserungen gefordert (November 2011) Verlust Parteienkonsens. Atomwahlen 2012. Öffentliche Meinung.
Fukushima-Effekt in ausgewählten Ländern (5) Italien Referendum Juni 2011 (94% gegen Atomkraft) Schweiz Erarbeitung neuer Energieszenarien und entsprechender Aktionspläne (Bundesamt für Energie) Parlamentarische Abstimmung über Verbot des AKW-Neubaus (28 September 2011) Taiwan Keine Laufzeitverlängerung Langfristig atomfreie Insel
Even the French Public Increasingly in Favor of a Nuclear Phase-out Do you wish that France March 2011 June 2011 rapidly stops its nuclear program and the 19% 15% operation of its reactors phases-out its nuclear program and the operation of its reactors progressively over 25 or 30 years continues its nuclear program and the building of new plants 51% 62% 30% 22% don t know 1% Total in favor of phase-out 70% 77%! Source: IFOP, June 2011
Only Three In Ten (31%) Globally Support Continuation of Nuclear Builds, With Only Poland Showing Majority Support CONTINUE TO BUILD NUCLEAR Some/other people say that what happened in Japan was an unforeseeable and isolated event so that there really is nothing that should stop the nuclear industry from continuing to build and operate nuclear plants to produce electricity in other parts of the world.. STOP FUTURE NUCLEAR BUILDS Other/some people say that what happened at the nuclear plant in Japan demonstrates that all nuclear facilities are vulnerable to unforeseen events that could have a deadly impact on those who live in and around them. As a result we should stop all further plans to build nuclear plants anywhere. à Which is closer to your point of view? Base: Have seen, read or heard in Q8 n= 17969 Source: IPSOS, June 2011
The World View: Nuclear Not A Viable Long Term Option à Overall, do you think that electricity produced from nuclear energy will be a viable long term option for countries who need to produce it in that way or do you think it is only a limited and soon obsolete form of producing energy for the future? Base: All Respondents n = 18787 Source: IPSOS, June 2011
Drei Bereiche besonderen Interesses Last Management Netzentwicklungen Speicher
Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 1 (!" '!" &!"!"# %!" *+,-,./0"01/2" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September 2011 42
Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 2 (!" Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth '!" &!"!"# %!" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" 12-3-/45"5647" *+,-,./0"01/2" 8647"96":..9" Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September 2011 42
Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 3 (!" '!" Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth Renewables like wind and solar are not always correlated to demand!"# &!" %!" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" *+,-./,0" 12345" 12-3-/45"5647" 6-/7" *+,-,./0"01/2" 8647"96":..9" 85-9-/43"3247" :247";2"<..;" Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September 2011 42
Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 4 (!" PHEV charging and demand response can reshape the demand profile to match renewable output better '!" Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth Renewables like wind and solar are not always correlated to demand!"# &!" %!" $!" #!"!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" 123456."-/" *+,-./,0" *+,-./,0" 12345" 13754" 12-3-/45"5647" 6-/7" 8-/9" *+,-,./0"01/2" 8647"96":..9" 85-9-/43"3247" :4-6-/57"7359" :247";2"<..;" ;359"23"<..2" =-/57"7359" Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September 2011 42
Simulation for Summer Load Management in Texas (RMI) - 5 (!" Storage discharge and flexible biomass can meet peak demand when wind and solar output are low PHEV charging and demand response can reshape the demand profile to match renewable output better Energy efficiency can reverse peak demand growth Renewables like wind and solar are not always correlated to demand!"# '!" &!" %!" $!" #!" Note: PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles!" #" $" %" &" '" (" )" $%&# *+,-./,0" 123456."-/" *+,-./,0" 123456."372" 123456."-/" *+,-./,0" 8-395::" *+,-./,0" 12345" 13754" 13;54" 12-3-/45"5647" 6-/7" 8-/9" *+,-,./0"01/2" <-/=" 8647"96":..9" 85-9-/43"3247" :4-6-/57"7359" >.32?.495;" :247";2"<..;" ;359"23"<..2" @4-6-/5;";35=" =-/57"7359" A35="23"9..2" B-/5;";35=" Firm renewable resources like geothermal, small hydro solar-thermal-electric, and biomass/wastefueled power generation can be used to balance wind and solar Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011 Tuesday 13 September 2011 42
CO2-Emissions of the Electricity Generation in Germany 1990-2007 Germany Source: Umweltbundesamt, 2009 Bangkok, 17 May 2010
Erneuerbare Energien in der Stromproduktion und Treibhausgasemissionen in Deutschland 1990 2007 Anteil (in %) 3 14 Produktion (in TWh) 17 88 Windkapazität (in MW) 68 22,000 PV Kapazität (in MW) 2 3,800 CO2 (in Mio) 349 349 Source: BMU 2009 Bangkok, 17 May 2010
CO2-Emissions and Electricity Consumption in Germany 1990-2007 Germany 2 Source: Umweltbundesamt, 2009 Bangkok, 17 May 2010
Versorgungssicherheit durch dezentrale Netze Beispiel Kuba Tage mit erheblichen Blackouts: 2004: 188 2005: 224 2006: 3 2007: 0 In 2007, über die Hälfte von Kubas 6 GW dezentral. Netz neu designed in inselfähige Mikronetze. In 2008, die wichtigsten Energiedienstleistungen auch nach zwei Hurricanes aufrechterhalten. Source: Amory Lovins, September 2011
A More Internet-like Power Grid Evolves Real-time information & participation Integration of new applications Central & local intelligence Central & local sources Smart (embedded) electronics Source: KEMA
Smart Grid + Smart Building = Smart Community and remember your car! Source: KEMA
Speicheroptionen Batterien (AES: 24 MW in Betrieb, 100 MW in Planung) Wasser (Pumpspeicher, über/unter Erde) Wasserstoff - synthetisches Methan (Speicher, Transport wie Erdgas) Eis (Gefriertruhen, Kühlschränke) Heisses Wasser (Wärmepumpen, zusätzliche Warmwassertanks) Druckluft Flywheels, etc.
Figure 1: Global installed and planned grid-scale storage projects (MW) Global Installed and Planned Grid-Scale Storage Projects (MW) 1,000,000 100,000 10,00 1,000 100 10 0 52,284 Pumped hydro 116,918 1,296 400 43 CAES Flywheels PbA NaS Ni-Cad Li-ion Flow batteries Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 3 61 1,625 365 40 82 15 30 12 Planned / In construction Installed Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Energy Smart Technologies, Results Book 2010 ELECTRI The first m entering th and Gene this was s As the o so public participan path to hig Note: CAES = Compressed Air Energy Storage; PbA = Lead Acid; NaS = Sodium Sulphur; Ni-Cad = Nickel Cadmium; Li-ion = Lithium Ion The need Vehicle m drive train the develo infrastruc more seri infrastruc impacts o potential n
Schlussfolgerungen (1) Atomkraft spielt eine sehr begrenzte Rolle im internationalen Energiesektor: 13% Strom, 5% Primärenergie, 2% Endenergie in der Welt. Weiteres Absinken ist zu erwarten. Atomkraft ist teuer und langsam. Fukushima verschärft Probleme: Kosten (Sicherheit, Versicherungen, Finanzierung ), öffentliche Meinung, politische Parteien, Kompetenz... Nach Fukushima und spektakulären Reaktionen in den führenden Wirtschaftsmächten à keine identifizierbare Zukunftsaussichten für Atomkraft. Neue Energiepolitiken sollten die Energiedienstleistung in den Mittelpunkt stellen. Intelligente Energiekonzepte und Technologien entwickeln sich rasant. Speichertechnologien, auch netzangekoppelt, sind bereits kosteneffizient. Einsatz der Erneuerbaren wird sich mit Speicher und Netzentwicklungen beschleunigen.
Schlussfolgerungen (2) Die Energiezukunft liegt in erschwinglichen, dezentralen supereffizienten Technologien, intelligenten Netzen und nachhaltiger Stadtentwicklung. Atompolitik zentralistisch, unflexibel und autokratisch symbolisiert das Gegenteil. We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. President Barack Obama State of the Union Address 27 January 2010 They are moving very strongly down the road to a low carbon economy. China is becoming the leader. Sir Nicholas Stern Madrid, 13 June 2011
Vielen Dank! Mail: mycle@orange.fr Fon: +33-1-69 83 23 79 Note: I m grateful to Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, who provided information and a number of slides for this presentation.