Challenges and Risks of the market transformation - the viewpoint of wind energy Vienna, 11 March 2016

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1 Challenges and Risks of the market transformation - the viewpoint of wind energy Vienna, 11 March 2016

2 Wind Energy in Austria (EOY 2015) Austria EOY ,119 Turbines Total Capacity: 2,409 MW Annual production capacity: >5.2 TWh Electricity 8,7% of consumption* 3,4 Mio. tons CO 2 5,500 Employees 7,000 citizens involved 40% private companies / 60% Utilities Source: IG Windkraft, December 2015 *(1) Estimation average full load hours, full capacity grid connected for one year. (2) final energy consumption Statistik Austria 2

3 Installed wind capacity in Europe (EOY 2015) Europe: 147,772 MW EU-28: 141,579 MW New installations EU-28 (2015): MW Installed Wind capacity Installed Wind capacity Installed Wind capacity Source: European Wind Energy Association, EWEA,

4 Global Installations (EOY 2015) Total installations: New installations: (China: 432,419 MW 63,013 MW 30,500 MW) Source: Global Wind Energy Council, GWEC

5 "Austria continues to maintain its ambitious target of increasing the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 100% by the year 2030 Chancellor Werner Faymann in his speech at the UN climate conference COP21 in Paris 5

6 Anteil an der erneuerbaren Energien an der Stromerzeugung in der EU RES el Share in the EU The Ziele EU der commissions EU Kommission objectives verlangen (50% RES el ) need ambitionierten ambitious Ausbau work 1% annual capacity increase 1% jährlicher from 2000 Zubau to % annual capacity increase von 2000 from bis 2015 to % more installations from 1,5% 2015 jährlicher to 2030 Zubau von 2015 bis % 1% Source: Quelle: EU-Commission: EU-Kommission: 6

7 A lot of work still has to be done Net electricity generating installations in the EU, (MW) Nearly 500 GW still have to be replaced EWEA, Annual Statistics

8 Market Integration? Mattel-Fisher Price evolveenergysystems 9

9 What to integrate? 100 years of fossile/base-peakload oriented market development 100 years of large-power-plant oriented grid development 100 years of centrally planned (financed) energy policy 100 years of national energy markets Versus 15 years of liberalisation unbundling? Still large governmentally dominated integrated companies 20 years of vres still learning High inflexible residual load No transparency for new players (high barrier) 10

10 Re-Defining the problem Re-defining the problem RES Share app. 25% (mainly Hydro) vres increasing but still not dominating (max. load-share 11% in May 2014 ENTSOe) Problem: Technical: inflexible load ( must run, baseload,...) Psychological: old market structures dissolve New understanding of burden sharing renewables have similar responsibilities as conventionals whilst having a shorter history and different cost structure 11

11 What s needed for integration No access to full market liquidity (short term markets, ancillary services for TSO/DSO, more tolerance regarding price spikes needed) Stable Frameworks policy changes raise inefficiency Premiums (for wind) have proven being reliable, stable market oriented no tendering (other, more effective, less distortive measures available) RES need a stable, long term oriented, transparent framework Binding national targets for RES raise certainty for ALL stakeholders RES need a security umbrella as long there is no level playing field with fossile/nuclear (priority dispatch, certificates of origin,...) 12

12 Fraunhofer IWES, AGORA Energiewende 13 Your position defines your point of view... (v)res are the new baseload A new market design means a design defined by renewables which allows integrating the residual (minimum) fossile load until it s phased out (not vice versa) The Energiewende is technical and economical (nearly) solved the problem is political

13 Florian Maringer Interessengemeinschaft Windkraft Österreich Austrian Wind Energy Association Wiener Straße 19, 3100 St. Pölten 14

14 Anteil der Importe in % am österr. Stromverbrauch Österreichischer Nettostromimport 2015 war die Abhängigkeit durch Stromimporte mit 15,5 Prozent des österreichischen Stromverbrauches so hoch wie noch nie. Quelle: Statistik Austria, Physikalische Importe minus Exporte 15

15 Marktversagen am Regelenergiemarkt Kosten für heimische Erzeuger explodieren Energiemenge unverändert Wenige, dominante Anbieter diktieren Preis Kostentreiber Marktversagen 16

16 Benachteiligung heimischer Stromerzeuger bevorzugt Energieimporte Kosten für Erzeuger ( G-Komponente ) im europäischen Vergleich Zwar gibt es einige europäische Staaten, in welchen von den Erzeugern Gebühren eingehoben werden. Fu r Österreich relevant sind jedoch nur jene Länder, die sich auch an der Leipziger Strombörse befinden. Quelle: Overview of transmission tariffs in Europe: Synthesis