The United Kingdom and the EU in 2030

Transkript

1 The United Kingdom and the EU in 2030 a scenario workshop seminar as part of a series of European Future Summits seminars at the European Academy Berlin November 2016 draft programme

2 Objectives for the European Future Summits seminars How can the future of the EU be designed? What opportunities are there, how can current challenges be overcome and crises turned around in a positive way? The European Future Summits series at the European Academy Berlin will address these questions. The first seminar in the series will use 'Brexit' as the starting point for our joint discussion. Against the background of the UK departing from the EU, it is proposed to undertake an informed re-evaluation of the future of the country in the context of European politics. Topic and method the United Kingdom and the EU in 2030 In this framework it is proposed in the first instance to ascertain from the perspective of the United Kingdom what political, economic and social opportunities as well as challenges will be presented to the country as a result of leaving the EU. Will the people in UK be better off economically, in five, ten and in fifteen years, than they are today? Will they succeed in arriving at a more equitable model of society as well? And how will the UK's role in international politics change with the newly-acquired freedom? In parallel, it is proposed to assess the consequences of Brexit for the EU. How will EU institutions, individual member states and finally, but not least, European civil society react to the British decision? How will the EU change, and will other countries follow the example of the British voters? This certainly very complex field will be rendered manageable in the course of the workshop by jointly elaborating several future scenarios. Based on the 'Alternate Futures' approach (according to Michael Oppenheimer), in all, three concurrently developing future narratives with respect to the UK in the context of European politics will be elaborated and contrasted with one another. The progress in time from the present up to 2030, together with common initial premisses and drivers, will provide the analytic framework for this process. In this way the core aspects of the topic will be identified and options for action derived. In this process, the approach in question does not go into the likelihood of particular developments taking place, but on the contrary examines whether they are plausible. Thus in the first place creative thinking, hand in hand with elaborating persuasive arguments, are required if the aim in view is to present even unlikely occurrences and development trajectories in a plausible way. Participants The workshop is directed towards young academic personnel, analysts and disseminators from other spheres of society who are intensively involved in dealing with politics, economics and society in the United Kingdom and/or aspects of European studies or the European Union. The seminar will be held in English. It is anticipated that there will be up to 20 participants. Seite 2

3 Thursday, 03 Nov I. Planning: how does a scenario emerge? 11:00 12:30 hrs. participants arrive 12:30 13:30 hrs. lunch 14:00 14:30 hrs. Calculating opportunities or narrating a future? welcome and introduction to the Alternate Futures method DR. SAMUEL MÜLLER, European Academy Berlin 14:30 16:00 hrs. What counts and who decides, now and in future? workshop session: ascertaining drivers and key factors with regard to the future of the UK and the EU 16:00 16:30 hrs. coffee / tea 16:30 18:30 hrs. One topic, three 'stories' workshop session: ascertaining 'headings' and key points (or the analytic framework) for a total of three future narratives 19:00 21:00 hrs. evening meal for all (at another venue, TBA) seminar direction throughout the programme and chairperson for the workshop sessions carried out by DR. SAMUEL MÜLLER, seminar director, European Academy Berlin Friday, 04 Nov II. Elaboration: three routes towards the future of the United Kingdom and the European Union 08:00 09:00 hrs. breakfast 09:00 11:00 hrs. In the focus: UK politics and society workshop session: scenario elaboration Seite 3

4 11:00 11:30 hrs. coffee / tea 11:30 13:00 hrs. In the focus: UK economic interests and foreign policy workshop session: scenario elaboration (cont.) 13:00 14:00 hrs. lunch 14:00 15:00 hrs. individual study session 15:00 16:30 hrs. High-level discussion exclusive to this seminar COUNSELLOR NICK LEAKE Counsellor and Head of the EU and Economics Issues, British Embassy Berlin 16:30 17:00 hrs. coffee / tea 17:00 19:00 hrs. In the focus: new EU integration strategies workshop session: scenario elaboration (cont.) 19:00 20:00 hrs. evening meal seminar direction throughout the programme and chairperson for the workshop sessions carried out by DR. SAMUEL MÜLLER, seminar director, European Academy Berlin Saturday, 05 Nov III. Discussion: the scenario method put to the test 08:00 09:00 hrs. breakfast 09:00 10:30 hrs. individual study session 10:30 11:00 hrs. coffee / tea 11:00 13:00 hrs. Scenario breakfast public panel discussion and brief reception with: Seite 4

5 DR. BARBARA LIPPERT Director of research at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) further speaker TBC chaired by: DR. SAMUEL MÜLLER, European Academy Berlin 13:00 14:00 hrs. lunch 14:00 15:00 hrs. What happens next for the Alternate Futures method? discussion session: critiques, extension to the scenario method used; fixing the outcomes, prospects, evaluation 15:00 15:30 hrs. coffee / tea 15:30 16:30 hrs. What happens next for the Alternate Futures method? (cont.) 16:30 17:00 hrs. culminating session 17:00 hrs. participants depart seminar direction throughout the programme and chairperson for the workshop sessions carried out by DR. SAMUEL MÜLLER, seminar director, European Academy Berlin Preise / Teilnehmerbetrag pro Person Seminar + 2 Übernachtungen im Einzelzimmer (alle Mahlzeiten) Seminar ohne Übernachtung (alle Mahlzeiten) Student*innen: Seminar + 2 Übernachtungen im Einzelzimmer (alle Mahlzeiten) Student*innen: Seminar ohne Übernachtung (alle Mahlzeiten) 50 EUR 30 EUR 40 EUR 24 EUR Bis zu einem Drittel der Teilnehmerbeiträge wird für die institutionelle Förderung der EAB verwendet. Anmeldungen erbeten an: Seite 5

6 LISA HOHNECK Tel.: +49 (0) TAGUNGSORT UND UNTERKUNFT Europäische Akademie Berlin Bismarckallee 46/48 D Berlin Tel.: +49 (0) PROJEKTLEITUNG ILONA RATHERT Tel.: +49 (0) ir@eab-berlin.eu STUDIENLEITER / TAGUNGSLEITUNG DR. SAMUEL MÜLLER Studienleiter, Europäische Akademie Berlin PROJEKTASSISTENZ LISA HOHNECK Tel.: +49 (0) p7@eab-berlin.eu Abbestellung, Stornierung, Nichtinanspruchnahme der Leistungen der EAB Der Rücktritt von Verträgen und Buchungen muss schriftlich bekundet werden. Bei einem Rücktritt ab acht Wochen vor Veranstaltungs-/Buchungsbeginn allen folgende Kosten an: Die Ausfallgebühr beträgt pro Tag und Person bei Absagen zwischen: 8 bis 6 Wochen vor Veranstaltungsbeginn 25% 6 bis 4 Wochen vor Veranstaltungsbeginn 50% 4 bis 2 Wochen vor Veranstaltungsbeginn 75% innerhalb der letzten 2 Wochen vor Beginn 85% Bitte beachten Sie unsere allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen ( Teilnehmerbeiträge können bis zu einem Drittel für die institutionelle Förderung der EAB verwendet werden. DIE EUROPÄISCHE AKADEMIE BERLIN (EAB) Europa verstehen. Europa gestalten. Mit diesem Leitspruch verbindet sich der Anspruch der Europäischen Akademie Berlin. Seit 1963 arbeitet die EAB erfolgreich als unabhängige und überparteiliche Bildungsstätte mit dem Schwerpunkt Europa. Die EAB ist anerkannter Akteur der europapolitischen Bildung, kompetenter Dienstleister und Partner im Seite 6

7 internationalen Bildungs-, Seminar- und Projektmanagement und Lern-, Begegnungs- und Veranstaltungsort mit besonderem Ambiente. ANFAHRT Bus M19 Bus 186 S-Bahn Linie 7 Station Taubertstraße Station Hagenplatz Station Grunewald Europäische Akademie Berlin e. V. Bismarckallee 46/48 D Berlin Tel.: +49 (0) Die Europäische Akademie Berlin wird ökologisch nachhaltiger. Seit 2013 arbeitet sie kontinuierlich daran, neben der wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Nachhaltigkeit insbesondere ihre Umweltbilanz zu verbessern. Seite 7