The End of the Oil Age... is not the End of the World The German answer is "Renewable Energy"

Transkript

1 The End of the Oil Age... is not the End of the World The German answer is "Renewable Energy" Tomi Engel Sofia

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3 The Financial Crisis and the DOW-Index Quelle: DTI 2008, NPD 2008, BP 2007; Prognose: LBST 2008

4 The Oil Price +,--. )! / :;< #!!( (! '! &!!"#$,--/$ (),--. + %! $! #!!"#$,--,$(),--- + "!!"#$%&&'$() %&&* +! "**! #!!! #!"! #!#! #!$! =49<!"#$,--9$(),--* +!"#$,--*$(),--/ +!"#$,--/$(),--. +!"#$,--.$(),--, + Quelle: LBST - EnergyWatchGroup

5 The Oil Price +,--. )! / :;< #!!( 140 (! '! &!!"#$,--/$ (),--. + %! $! #!!"#$,--,$(),--- + "!!"#$%&&'$() %&&* +! "**! #!!! #!"! #!#! #!$! =49< Supply < Demand!!"#$,--9$(),--* +!"#$,--*$(),--/ +!"#$,--/$(),--. +!"#$,--.$(),--, + Quelle: LBST - EnergyWatchGroup

6 Oil Production... the Hubbert Curve Peak... when do the problems start?

7 Oil Production in the USA Mb/Tag Mb/Tag = 58 Mio. m 3 /Jah r Rest USA Nettoimporte: 2000: 53% 2010: 65% Texas Alaska Vergangenheit Prognose Flüssiggas (NGL ) GoM Tiefwasser (>200m) Jahr

8 Oil Production in the USA Mb/Tag Mb/Tag = 58 Mio. m 3 /Jah r Peak ca Rest USA Nettoimporte: 2000: 53% 2010: 65% Texas Alaska Vergangenheit Prognose Flüssiggas (NGL ) GoM Tiefwasser (>200m) Jahr

9 Oil Production in Norway

10 Oil Production in Great Britain Is this the political? Climate Change? Quelle: - Stand

11 Oil Production outside OPEC Mb/Tag Russische Föd. 07 Nigeria 05 Mexiko 04 Vietnam 04 Dänemark 04 USA-Tiefsee 03 Jemen 01 Norwegen 01 Oman 01 Australien 2000 Großbritannien 99 Ekuador 99 Kolumbien 99 Venezuela 98/68 Argentinien 98 Malaysia 97 Gabun 97 Syrien 95 Indien 95! Ägypten 93 Alaska 89 Indonesien Rumänien Kanada (konv.) 74 USA (48 Staaten) 70 Ukraine 70 Deutschland 67 Österreich 55 Jahr Quelle: LBST GmbH - Stand

12 The Timeline of the Oil Age Quelle: - Stand

13 The Timeline of the Oil Age Peak ca. 2008? Quelle: - Stand

14 The Timeline of the Oil Age Quelle: - Stand !

15 The Big Picture 2% Growth Peak by 2008 ± 3 2% Decline

16 The Big Picture 2% Growth At 84 Mb/d a decline of only 2% means approx. 1,7 Mb are missing per day 2%?4% Decline

17 What are 1,7 Millionen Barrels of Oil per Day? 100 Millionen Tons of Oil per Year... the entire oil consumption of Germany 100 Nuclear Plants... one quarter of all nuclear plants existing today 30 Millionen Hectars of Forrest... three times the forrest area of Germany 100 Millionen Hectars of Rapeseed... six times the agricultural area of Germany

18 What are 1,7 Millionen Barrels of Oil per Day? 100 Millionen Tons of Oil per Year This is... the entire oil consumption of Germany 100 Nuclear Plants HUGH!... one quarter of all nuclear plants existing today 30 Millionen Hectars of Forrest... three times the forrest area of Germany 100 Millionen Hectars of Rapeseed... six times the agricultural area of Germany

19 Solution: Expand the Reserves?... means "More Oil from exisitng Oil Fields" Beispiel: Alaska North Slope Quelle: Chris Skrebowski

20 Solution: Expand the Reserves?... means "More Oil from exisitng Oil Fields" Does not work! Beispiel: Alaska North Slope Quelle: Chris Skrebowski

21 Solution: Unconventional Oil? Conventional Unconventional

22 Solution: Unconventional Oil? Too slow! Conventional Unconventional

23 National Petroleum Council Report - July 2007 NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL Draft Report Facing the Hard Truths about Energy A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas July 18, 2007 This is a working document solely for the review and use of the participants in the National Petroleum Council s Global Oil and Gas Study, and was approved on July 18 by the members of the National Petroleum Council subject to final editing. A final report and accompanying CD will be published and available to the public in September. Quelle: Internet - Juli 2007

24 Solution: Switch to Natural Gas? Mrd m 3 Deutschland) Italien History Importe aus Russland, Nordafrika (konst bis 2020 Ab % p.a.) Niederlande UK LNG Importe LNG: + 5 % p. a. bis 2025 Norwegen Prediction Quelle: DTI 2008, NPD 2008, BP 2007; Prognose: LBST 2008

25 Solution: Switch to Natural Gas? Mrd m 3 Deutschland) Italien History Importe aus Russland, Nordafrika (konst bis 2020 Ab % p.a.) Niederlande LNG Importe Risky! UK LNG: + 5 % p. a. bis 2025 Norwegen Prediction Quelle: DTI 2008, NPD 2008, BP 2007; Prognose: LBST 2008

26 Natural Gas... Where should it come from? Quelle: IEA

27 Solution: Move to Uranium? kt Uran USA Deutschland Namibia Russland Kasachstan Reaktorbedarf Australien Datenquelle: NEA 2006, Für 2006 Daten von Grafik und Analyse: LBST Juni 2007 Kanada

28 Solution: Move to Uranium? kt Uran USA Deutschland Bombs... Stockpile Namibia Russland Kasachstan Reaktorbedarf Australien Datenquelle: NEA 2006, Für 2006 Daten von Grafik und Analyse: LBST Juni 2007 Stockpile Kanada?

29 Nuclear Energy is Very Expensive and Dangerous Nuclear 2 GWp = 16 TWh (and almost no jobs) Euro Windenergy 8 GWp = min. 16 TWh (and many many jobs)

30 Nuclear Energy is Very Expensive and Dangerous Nuclear Euro 2 GWp = 16 TWh (and almost no jobs) Windenergy 12 GWp = min. 24 TWh (and many many jobs)

31 Nuclear Energy is Very Expensive and Dangerous Euro = expected cost to the tax payers (!) for cleaning up known damage of the last 30 years! "Asse II" is storing low volumes of low grade nuclear waste from the years (includes 11 kg of Plutonium)

32 27 Tropisch Brasilie Ende Mä auf der Bunde Diese niedr nich der St Sc u

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34 Fossil Structure - 3 Sectors 50-70% Verlust durch Abwärme Electricity Heat 50-70% Verlust durch Abwärme Mobility

35 Solar Structure Heat 50-70% Verlust durch Abwärme Mobility

36 Solar Structure 100% Solar... in cold Switzerland 50-70% Verlust durch Abwärme Mobility

37 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks 50-70% Verlust durch Abwärme Mobility

38 Wind Energy 1 MWp = Electricity for 2000 People... up to 6 MWp

39 Solarelectric Panels (Photovoltaics) 1 kwp = 10 m 2 = Electricity for one Person

40 Biogasproduction 1 Hectare = Electricity for 20 People

41 German Industry Target for Renewables Target 2020: 47%! Renewable Electricity

42 German Industry Target for Renewables

43 Regions with a 100%-Renewable Target Region Wiedingharde Insel Pellworm Schleswig Holstein Region Nordhessen Trier - Saarbrücken Neckar Alb Hegau Bodensee Lübow - Krassow Landkreis Fürstenfeldbruck Landkreis München Lüchow Dannenberg - Wendland Landkreis Harz Landkreis Ebersberg Barnim Uckermark

44 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks 50-70% Verlust durch Abwärme?? Mobility

45 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks

46 Electric Mobility

47 Electric Mobility... with Cable

48 Electric Mobility... with Cable no

49 Electric Mobility... with Cable no n Millionen on the road

50 Cycling Theory... CO2-Emissions Touring Bike 100% E-Bike 133 Watt + 10% = 146 Watt At 22 km/h both require 2,7 minutes to travel 1 km Engine Efficiency: 25% 70% Required Energy per km: 24 Wh 9 Wh

51 Cycling Theory... CO2-Emissions Required Energy per km: Touring Bike 100% E-Bike 133 Watt + 10% = 146 Watt At 22 km/h both require 2,7 minutes to travel 1 km Engine Efficiency: 25% 70% 24 Wh 9 Wh GHG-Emissions per km: 36 g CO 2 10 g CO g CO2/kWh 1100 g CO2/kWh

52 Cycling Theory... CO2-Emissions Touring Bike 100% E-Bike 133 Watt + 10% = 146 Watt At 22 km/h both require 2,7 minutes to travel 1 km Engine Efficiency: 25% 70% 24 Wh 9 Wh Required Energy per km: GHG-Emissions per km: 4 g CO 2 10 g CO g CO2/kWh Potatoes 1100 g CO2/kWh

53 Cycling Theory... CO2-Emissions Required Energy per km: Touring Bike 100% E-Bike 133 Watt + 10% = 146 Watt At 22 km/h both require 2,7 minutes to travel 1 km Engine Efficiency: 25% 70% 24 Wh 9 Wh GHG-Emissions per km: 4 g CO 2 6 g CO g CO2/kWh Potatoes 650 g CO2/kWh German-El.-Mix

54 Cycling Theory... CO2-Emissions Required Energy per km: Touring Bike 100% E-Bike 133 Watt + 10% = 146 Watt At 22 km/h both require 2,7 minutes to travel 1 km Engine Efficiency: 25% 70% 24 Wh 9 Wh GHG-Emissions per km: 7 g CO 2 6 g CO g CO2/kWh Bread 650 g CO2/kWh German-El.-Mix

55 Cycling Theory... CO2-Emissions Required Energy per km: Touring Bike 100% E-Bike 133 Watt + 10% = 146 Watt At 22 km/h both require 2,7 minutes to travel 1 km Engine Efficiency: 25% 70% 24 Wh 9 Wh GHG-Emissions per km: 7 g CO 2 0,3 g CO g CO2/kWh Bread 30 g CO2/kWh

56 Cycling Theory... CO2-Emissions This will be really hard.. no butter, no jam, no cheese, no wine... GHG-Emissions per km: 7 g CO 2 0,3 g CO g CO2/kWh Bread This is our future 30 g CO2/kWh

57 Electric Mobility... with Cable no

58 Electric Mobility... with Cable no

59 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks Think... kwh of! Electricity

60 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks

61 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks Long term storage: Biomass

62 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks Think... Smart! Grid

63 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks Think... Smart! Grid Vehicle Strategy Short term storage: Battery

64 Solar Structure... Efficient Networks

65 Reduction Efficiency Renewables

66 Tomi Engel