Climate change and the role of renewable energy in the future

Transkript

1 Climate change and the role of renewable energy in the future Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Flensburg University Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 1 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 1 Structure of the presentation The greenhouse effect New evidence on man-made climate change (IPCC ( 2007 WG I New results on climate change mitigation (IPCC WG III 2007): The need to act The timeframe Mitigation options The costs Solving the energy problem Conclusions Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 2 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 2 1

2 The greenhouse effect Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 3 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 3 The greenhouse effect The Greenhouse Effect Solar radiation Long-wave radiation Greenhouse gases: -CO 2 -CH 4 -N 2 O -SF 6 -FCKWs JTH COP6bis/SBSTA Source: Houghton 2001 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 4 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 4 2

3 New evidence on man-made climate change ( 2007 (IPCC WG I Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 5 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 5 Anthropogenic Influences on Climate Change CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM, p. 3) Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 6 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 6 3

4 Accelerated global warming Period Rate ± ±0.018 Years /decade Warmest 12 years since 1850: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Source: Pachauri und Jallow, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 7 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 7 Anthropogenic and natural forcings Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TS S.62) Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 8 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 8 4

5 70% increase of greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2004 ( 4 p. Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 9 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 9 The results on climate change mitigation ( 2007 (IPCC WG III The need to act Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 10 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 10 5

6 ( AR4 ) Warming scenarios until 2100 A2 is business as usual Critical threshold 2 C ( S.14 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 11 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 11 Temperature rise until ( AR4 ) scenarios A2 and B1 Warming over Greenland : ( North B1: 1 3 C (South to ( usual A2: 2,5 7,5 C ( Business as A2 ( TAR ) Critical value 3 C Ice volume for 7 m sea level rise B1 ( S.15 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 12 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 12 6

7 Arctic ice loss faster than previously thought Source: Stroeve et al S.2 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 13 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 13 New results on climate change mitigation (IPCC WG III 2007) The timeframe Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 14 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 14 7

8 Which emission pathways avoid the worst climate change consequences? ( 19 S. Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, ( C (Pre industrial temperature rise to average about -0.4 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 15 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 15 New results Neuste on climate Ergebnisse change zu den mitigation ( 2007 Handlungsmöglichkeiten (IPCC WG III (IPCC 2007) WG III The Unsere means Handlungsoptionen for mitigation Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 16 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 16 8

9 Mitigation options 2030 and 2100 ( 25 S. Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 17 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 17 New results on climate change mitigation (IPCC WG III 2007) The costs of mitigation Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 18 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 18 9

10 Mitigation costs in 2030 ( 15 p. Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 19 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 19 An illustration of mitigation costs in 2030 GDP GDP without climate change Welfare level today GDP with mitigation to ppmv CO 2 eq 80% 77% 2007 ~1 year 2030 time Source: according to Metz 2007 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 20 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 20 10

11 The key issue: Solving the energy problem Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 21 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 21 Decarbonisation of energy supply four options Nuclear energy Carbon capture and sequestration Energy efficiency and savings Renewable energies Solar energy Wind energy Biomass Water power Geothermal energy Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 22 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 22 11

12 Renewable energies Available for billions of years (almost) CO2-neutral Comparatively environmentally friendly The incoming solar radiation amounts to times the world primary energy demand Are comparatively expensive Solar, wind and wave energy fluctuate Only system integration can be the solution Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 23 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 23 World-wide availability of renewable energies Angebot erneuerbarer Energien- weltweit Source: BWE /15000 of incoming solar radiation can meet the world energy demand! Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 24 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 24 12

13 A transeuropean electricity model G. Czisch, Dipl.Wi.-Ing. Wi.-Ing.Ingrid IngridNestle Nestle Dipl. Folie25 25 Folie Climatechange changeand andrenewable renewableenergies energies Climate Gr Sz Tr an s. +B Z 1/8 PV IK Dipl.Wi.-Ing. Wi.-Ing.Ingrid IngridNestle Nestle Dipl. Climatechange changeand andrenewable renewableenergies energies Climate Stromproduktionskosten [ ct/kwh] 11 1/1 6P VIK SE GS SE 1/2 GS RK 2/5 RK 2/3 Gr Sz SK +W ak 0% W Ing Tr an a s. 15 % 10 Gu 0% D EV 10 % Gu Gr D Sz nu rk ab el Gr Sz +F W % Erzeugung [TWh] Annual electricity production in the Transeuropean Model Biomasse Brennstoffzellen Fallwind Geothermie GuD-Kraftwerke Parabolrinnen Photovoltaik Wasserkraft Wind Land Wind offshore Stromkosten D-Dk Stromkosten Ø Stromverbrauch G. Czisch, Folie26 26 Folie 13

14 Due to climatic restriction, no more than 0,9% of German electricity can be produced with wind turbines Nuclear information circle Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 27 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 27 Conclusions Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 28 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 28 14

15 Schlussfolgerungen Time is scarce, as climate changes a lot faster than we thought Greenhouse gas emissions must be stabilised at lower levels than previously thought: ppmv CO 2 eq. or 400 ppmv CO 2 Kyoto II needs to be substantially more stringent and should include major developing countries The conversion of the energy system is central The necessary technologies are already available Climate change mitigation is cheaper than previously thought and economically viable Renewable energies are a key factor of the solution! Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 29 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 29 Thank you very much for your attention Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 30 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 30 15

16 Sektorale Vermeidungspotentiale in 2030 in Gt CO 2 eq/a Alle Weltregionen und alle Sektoren können substantielle Beiträge zur Lösung des Problems beisteuern! ( 14 S. Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 31 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 31 Components of radiative forcing ( S.4 Quelle: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 32 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 32 16

17 Emissionen für Stabilisierungsniveaus von ppmv CO 2 eq. A ppmv CO 2 eq CO 2 A ppmv CO 2 eq CO 2 Notwendig nach AR4 ( B1 ) Unterste Variante TAR ppmv CO 2 eq CO 2 ( 23 S. Quelle: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 33 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 33 Fossile Energieträger der Kern des Problems (Beispiel Deutschland) Treibhausgasemissionen in D 2000 Anteile GHGs in D 2000: CO 2 : 87% CH4: 6% N2O: 6% HFCS/PFCS: 1% SF6: 0,25% Verkehr 19% 14% EL/FW Gesamtemissionen im Jahr Mt CO 2 Eq. 33% CO 2 zu 97% aus Energieumwandlung! Fossile Energieträger sind 85% des Problems HH 17% 17% Ind. CO 2 87% Quelle: BMU 2003, S. 32 und UBA 2002, S. 31 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 34 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 34 17

18 Vermeidungskosten des Klimawandels in 2050 ( 26 p. Quelle: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 35 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 35 Energy efficiency Energy efficiency is possible at all stages of the production and use chain Depending on the application, the primary energy use can be reduced by up to 90% On average a reduction of the specific energy use between 35 and 50% is possible A substantial energy demand remains! Only a partial solution! Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 36 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 36 18

19 Menschlicher Einfluss auf das Klima ( Frist (die lange CO 2 CH 4 Deuterium als Temperaturmarker Die atmosphärische Konzentration von CO 2 und CH 4 im Jahr 2005 überstieg bei weitem die natürliche Variation der letzten Jahre Quelle: Pachauri und Jallow, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 37 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 37 Erwärmung über der Arktis Erwärmung in der Arktis ist doppelt so hoch wie im Weltdurchschnitt vom 19. zum 21. Jahrhundert und seit den späten 1960ern bis heute. Quelle: Pachauri und Jallow, Unterschiedliche Skalen!! Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 38 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 38 19

20 CO 2 -Emissionen sind das zentrale Problem (Anteil verschiedener THGs in 2004) ( 4 S. Quelle: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 39 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 39 Globale Treibhausgasemissionen nach Sektoren in 2004 ( 5 S. Quelle: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 40 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 40 20

21 Regionale Verteilung der Treibhausgasemissionen pro Kopf ( 8 S. Quelle: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 41 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 41 ( TAR ) Temperaturanstieg bis 2100 Projected Temperatures During the 21 st Century Are Significantly Higher Than at Any Time During the Last 1000 Years Quelle: IPCC TAR 2001, S. 34 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 42 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 42 21

22 ( AR4 ) Temperaturanstiegsszenarien bis 2100 ( S.15 Quelle: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 43 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 43 Der Zeitfaktor im Klimasystem Quelle: IPCC TAR 2001, S. 89 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 44 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 44 22

23 Hurrikans im Nordatlantik und SST Deutlicher Anstieg seit 1994 Die Zahl und der Anteil der weltweiten starken Wirbelstürme steigt ( ) Source: Pachauri und Jallow, SST Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 45 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 45 Was ist zu tun? Halbierung der weltweiten THG Emissionen gegenüber 1990 (von ca. 20,5 GtCO 2 /a auf 10,25 GtCO 2 bis 2050 Industrieländer müssen auf 20% von 1990 reduzieren! Emissionsniveau (26,4 ( 2 GtCO 3,25 von 16,4 Gt = 20% Quelle: Deutscher Bundestag 1991, S. 73 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 46 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 46 23

24 Was ist zu tun? Die Empfehlungen des Bundestages von 1991 für 2050 passen sehr gut mit den unteren Emissionsszena rios zusammen und können als Leitlinie dienen! Quelle: Deutscher Bundestag 1991, S. 71 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 47 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 47 Kernenergie Kernenergie birgt erhebliche Risiken von Großunfällen Die Langzeitsicherheit von Endlagern radioaktiver Abfälle kann nicht gewährleistet werden Massiver Kernenergieeinsatz birgt erhebliche ( Atomwaffenverbreitung ) Proliferationsrisiken Kernenergie hat große Akzeptanzprobleme in der Gesellschaft Kernenergie ist keine nachhaltige Lösung! Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 48 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 48 24

25 Clean Fossil Fuels Abtrennung des CO 2 vor oder nach der Verbrennung Generatorgas (H 2 und konzentriertes CO 2 ) Reinsauerstoffverbrennung Katalytische Abtrennung von CO 2 aus dem Rauchgas Langfristige (?) Lagerung von CO 2 ohne Kontakt zur Atmosphäre Alte Öl- und Gaslagerstätten Saline Tiefenaquifere Einbringung in Ozeane Wie dauerhaft ist die Lösung? Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 49 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 49 Speicherung in salzhaltigen Aquiferen Quelle: IPCC 2003 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 50 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 50 25

26 Einbringung in die Tiefsee Quelle: Osumi 2003 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 51 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 51 Beispiele für Effizienzsteigerungen Quelle: Deutscher Bundestag 1991, S. 100 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 52 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 52 26

27 Ein nachhaltiges Energieszenario für 2050 ( 2050 ) Nachhaltiges Energieangebotsszenario EU15 W/cap Year Coal Mineral oil Natural gas Nuclear energy Biomass PV Solar thermal el. Solar thermal heat Wind energy Hydro power Heat pumps Source: LTI-Research Group Long-Term Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into the European Energy System, 1998, S. 96 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 53 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 53 Ein nachhaltiges Energieszenario für 2050 Entwicklung der regenerativen Energiequellen im EU15 Szenario bis 2050 W/cap Year Biomass PV Solar thermal el. Solar thermal heat Wind energy Hydro power Heat pumps Source: LTI-Research Group Long-Term Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into the European Energy System, 1998, S. 97 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 54 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 54 27

28 Ein nachhaltiges System das funktioniert? Source: LTI-Research ( p.98 Group 1998, Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 55 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 55 Wirtschaftliches Vermeidungspotential in 2030 in Gt CO 2 eq/a ( 11 S. Quelle: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, ( 11 S. Quelle: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, ( CO2eq/a (Present (2004) annual emissions about 45 Gt Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 56 Dipl. Wi.-Ing. Ingrid Nestle Climate change and renewable energies Folie 56 28