Das elektrsche Energeversorgungssystem der Zukunft Herausforderungen und Möglchketen Göran Andersson Power System Lab ETH Zürch
AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen (Forschung an der ETH Z) Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 2
European Network of Transmsson System Operators for Electrcty ENTSO-E RG Contnental Europe = ex UCTE November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 3
Development of the power systems (In Europe and North Amerca) Isolated Plants Indvdual Systems Regonal Systems Contnental Systems 1885 1910 1935 1960 1985 - November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 4
Development of the European Electrcty System: from UCTPE to ENTSOE-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 5
Source: ENTSO-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 6
Domnatng Coal Nuclear Addtonal Hydro Increasng Wnd Gas Bomass Photovoltac November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 7
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Value of wholesale electrcty market n Europe s over 150 G, approx. 12% s cross border trade Annual cost of operatng the transmsson network s 10 11 G Ageng networks - Mssng E-W and N-S lnks - Poorly adapted to renewable and dstrbuted generaton New nsttutonal archtecture wth Thrd Package - ENTSO E - Agency November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 10
Cross border transfer of power n Europe Source: ENTSO-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 11
Source: ENTSO-E November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 12
AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 14
The tradtonal tasks of the ENTSO-E system Increase relablty and securty by provdng redundancy (meshed networks) Improvng effcency by jont frequency control and shared power reserves (te lnes, power poolng, ) The new tasks of the ENTSO-E system Transmt power from remote power sources to load centers (wnd power ) Consttute a power market for dfferent actors November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 15
Integraton of Wnd Power EWEA (2008) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 16
The Dynamcs of Wnd Power July 16, 2008 03.30 am swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 17
The Dynamcs of Wnd Power July 16, 2008 10.30 am swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 18
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Current Trends n Power Systems Increasng RES deployment (= fluctuatng power n-feed) Germany 2010: 45 GW power capacty, 52 TWh 10% of total generaton Stll mostly uncontrolled power n-feed Curtalment of wnd power n-feed for contngences mplemented n some countres (= partal controllablty) Measurement and predcton of PV and Wnd n-feed (state estmaton) 45 GW power capacty 52 TWh electrcty generated November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 20
50.06 Hz 50 Hz 49.94 Hz KW-Ausfall Prmärregelung Sekundärregelung Tertärregelung 1200 MW 30 Sekunden 15 Mnuten 30 Mnuten The grd s actng lke a huge storage! Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 21
Europe wll need more Balancng Power November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 22
En möglches Scenaro für de Schwez 2050 Elektrsche Lestung [n MW] [n MW] Pumpspecher CH 1.7GW, 50-100GWh η = 75 80% Elektroautos 0.3 GW, 1.2 GWh η = 80 90% Stromüb erfluss Stromüberfluss Zet [ n Wärmepumpen 0.7 GW, 0.6 GWh Zet [ n h] Kühlgeräte 1GW, 0.1 GWh Strommangel mangel DSM (Boler) 2.5GW, 1GWh November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 23
En möglches Scenaro für de Schwez 2050 Pumpspecher CH Elektroautos Wärmepumpen Kühlgeräte DSM (Boler) 45 Stunden 4 Stunden 1 Stunde 6 Mn. 25 Mn. Elektrsche Lestung [n MW] Stromüberfluss Strommangel Zet [ n h] November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 24
Prognosen snd berets gut (Bespel PV-Erzeugung) 16'000.0 14'000.0 12'000.0 10'000.0 8'000.0 6'000.0 4'000.0 2'000.0 0.0 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 PV-Erzeugung n DE: 10 Tage vom 25.06.2011-03.07.2011 November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 25
Prognosen snd berets gut (Bespel Wnd-Erzeugung) 14'000.0 12'000.0 10'000.0 8'000.0 6'000.0 4'000.0 2'000.0 0.0 x-achse: Stunden, y-achse: MW 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 Wnd (Predcton) [MW] Wnd (Realsed) [MW] Wnd-Erzeugung n DE: 10 Tage vom 25.06.2011-03.07.2011 November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 26
Installaton von Wndkraft und PV Redukton der Schwungmasse des Systems De Frequenzstabltät wrd gefährdet November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 27
Frequency Varatons, 1 Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 28
Oscllatons n Mult-Machne Systems, 1 50.06 50.04 50.02 f [Hz] 50 49.98 49.96 08:05:00 08:06:00 08:07:00 08:08:00 08:09:00 08:10:00 08:11:00 08:12:00 14.02.2010 Freq. Mettlen Freq. Brnds Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 29
Oscllatons n Mult-Machne Systems, 2 North- South ca. 4 s East- West ca. 5 s Source: W. Sattnger, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 30
AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 31
General Opnon: Hgh Voltage DC wll be a mportant system component n the future European Power Grd Power flows can be controlled November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 32
Upgradng the exstng Grd Suffcent to transport future Volumes? A new transmsson layer s essental to master the European energy challenges of the 21 st century. Source: T. Tllwcks, swssgrd November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 33
Plans and Vsons, 1 In Betreb 7.350 MW In Planung 4.950 MW Vorstuden 10.400 MW Vorstuden (mt EWEA-Empfehlung) 9.600 MW EWEA-Empfehlung 7.100 MW (2020) 11.100 MW (2030) France 2030: Vson des EWEA Offshore-Grds Italy Span Investtonsvolumen über 13 Mrd. November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 34
Plans and Vsons, 2 November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 35
Europe wll need more Balancng Power How provde t n a renewable & cost-effcent way? November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 36
Not only new hardware s needed! Old structure Energy Flow Generaton Transmsson Dstrbuton Consumer Informaton Flow Generaton Consumer Future structure Energy Flow Generaton Transmsson Dstrbuton Prosumer Informaton Flow Generaton Prosumer November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 37
Connectng Generaton wth Demand & Storage Extendng the Grd & Integratng Markets November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 38
Forschung an der ETH Zürch November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 39
One Power Node Storage capacty state-of-charge Internal losses Power out-feed from grd Power n-feed to grd Sheddng term C x = η load u load η 1 gen u gen + ξ w v Effcency factors Provded / demanded power November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 40
Examples of Power Node Defntons General formulaton: C x = η load u load η 1 gen u gen + ξ w v Combned Heat/ Power Plant(CHP), Berln-Mtte Fully dspatchable generaton no load, no storage (C) Fuel: natural gas (ξ>0) η = ξ 1 u gen gen Offshore Wnd Farm, Denmark dspatchable generaton, f wnd blows (ξ) and energy waste term (w) non-zero no load, no storage (C) Fuel: wnd power (ξ>0) η 1 ugen = ξ w gen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 41
Examples of Power Node Defntons General formulaton: C x = η load u load η 1 gen u gen + ξ w v Hydro Pumped Storage, Germany Fully dspatchable generaton (turbne) and load (pump) Constraned storage (C 8 GWh) Fuel: almost no water nflux (ξ 0) C x = η u η load load 1 gen u gen Emosson (Nant de Drance), Swtzerland Fully dspatchable generaton, but no load (pump) large storage (C 1000 GWh) Fuel supply: ran and snow meltng (ξ>>0) C x = 1 η + ξ u gen gen Varants: modellng of hydro cascades (tme-delay of water flow between stages). November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 42
Optmal predctve power dspatch (Germany, hgh PV) T pred. = 72h, T upd. = 4h, T sample =15mn. Smulaton Perod: May 2010 (30% Wnd, 50% PV,, no DSM) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 43
Evaluaton of balance terms (May 2010) Case: 30%Wnd, 50% PV,,no DSM Balance Term Value [GWh] Electrcty consumed by loads 36450.0 Electrcty produced by conv. generator 9482.4 ( 48%) Wnd generaton fed nto grd 10062.8 Wnd generaton curtaled 872.6 PV generaton fed nto grd 18111.9 ( 248%) PV generaton curtaled 113.1 Warm-water heater Load not avalable Pumped hydro storage Generaton 4810.1 ( 424%) Pumped hydro storage Load 6017.2 ( 496%) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 44
AGENDA Das Europäsche Stromnetz Technsche Herausforderungen Technsche Lösungen Schlussfolgerungen November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 45
Challenges ahead Techncal challenge = TSOs and ENTSO-E Economc challenge = Market players Regulatory challenge = NRAs and Agency Conceptual challenge = Techncal + Economc + Regulatory challenges Poltcal challenge = EU, Governments and Ctzens November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 46
En scheres elektrsches Energesystem mt hohem Antel neuer erneuerbarer Energequellen st ohne Komfortverlust möglch Aber wr brauchen: enen starken Ausbau von Kurz- und Langzetspecher en flexbles Netz und ntellgente Netzführung noch bessere Prognosemodelle (auf lokaler Ebene) November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 47
The hstory of the electrc power system In the begnnng was Edson (DC) Then Westnghouse (Tesla) took over (AC) In the future electrc power system they wll / must co-exst November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 48
Fragen? November 2011 Physkalsche Gesellschaft Zürch 49