German-Japanese Symposium Strategies of coping the Demographic Change in Germany and Japan Berlin, January 2016.

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1 Demographic Change and Family Policy in Germany: The Reconciliation Strategy German-Japanese Symposium Strategies of coping the Demographic Change in Germany and Japan Berlin, January 2016 Martin Bujard Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany Enduring low fertility in Germany 1st reduced generation 2nd generation Source: Data: Statistisches Bundesamt Data for FRG until 1989 and Unified Germany since 1990.

2 Age dependency ratio until 2060 Source: own design based on: 13. Coordinated Population Projection (2015) Population size until 2060 Source: own design based on: 13. Coordinated Population Projection (2015)

3 Consequences of enduring low fertility: A framework Source: Bujard 2015, Comparative Population Studies Vol 40 (2), p Germany in the EU: Population size Source: Bujard 2015, Comparative Population Studies Vol 40 (2), p. 144.

4 Strategies of family policy State-private-nexus: Pronatalism or capability? Pronatalism historically impossible; but fostering capability to fulfil individual family plans. Goal hierarchy: Fertility, FLP, gender equity or family well-being? It depends: Media focusses on fertility, parliament laws do not, Politicians heterogeneous Family model: Bread-winner or dual earner? Since the paradigm change 2004 double earner and carer. Still relicts from the past: Ehegattensplitting. Focus of policies: Financial incentives or reconciliation policies? Until 2004 mainly financial incentives, including taxes. Since than reconciliation and time policies such as child care, parental leave. Traditional and Reconciliation Strategy Diffusion phase Adaptation phase Source: Bujard, M., 2011, Geburtenrückgang und Familienpolitik, Nomos. More working mothers = higher fertility Reconciliation strategy is most successful.

5 Women s generation in West-Germany: De facto choice between children and career Bujard, Martin (2015): Kinderlosigkeit in Deutschland. Zeitschrift für Familienforschung 27 (3), Life plans of the young generation (age 20-39) Wer soll sich um die Kinder kümmern? Wer soll für das Einkommen sorgen?

6 Can family policy raise fertility? Family policy has an impact on fertility - as well as economic and cultural factors. Child care is the strongest instrument. This impact is often time-lagged (Bujard 2011: 20 years), groups-specific and shaped by culture. It is not possible for politicians to plan fertility rates of a country. Comparison of 28 OECD countries: long-term changes (20 years) Change in TFR GRE KOR USA GER AUS AUT SUI POR JPN IRL FIN NZL ITA ESP SWE BEL LUX GBR DEN NED ISL NOR FRA r = 0,73** y = -0,34 + 0,002x Change in child care expenditure per head (in $) Source: Bujard, M., 2011, Geburtenrückgang und Familienpolitik, Nomos.

7 TFR after family policy reforms Child care expansion 2004 Parental leave reform 2006 Child care expansion 2008 Entitlement for child care ,2 2,0 1,8 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Germany FRG GDR 0, End of post-transitional birth decline: Turnaround of the cohort fertility rates Source: Bujard/Sulak 2016.

8 Female labour force: historical change Durchschnittliche Wochenarbeitszeit Frauenerwerbstätigenquote Volkswirtschaftliches Arbeitsvolumen pro Frau Quelle: Eigene Berechnung, Datenbasis Mikrozensen ; nur Westdeutschland Rushhour of life - women Stunden pro Woche Medien Hobby/Unterhaltung/Ehrenamt Wege Freizeit Arbeit gesamt Pendeln 30 Haushalt 20 Betreuung 10 Bildung Erwerbstätigkeit Personen ohne Kinder im Haushalt nach Alter Alter 1. Kind Alter des jüngsten Kindes in Haushalten mit 2 Kindern unter 27 Jahren Personen ohne minderjährige Kinder im Haushalt nach Alter Source: Panova, Sulak, Bujard, Muth 2016.

9 Rushhour of life - men Stunden prowoche Medien Hobby/Unterhaltung/Ehrenamt Wege Freizeit Arbeit gesamt Pendeln Haushalt Betreuung Bildung Erwerbstätigkeit Personen ohne Kinder im Haushalt nach Alter Alter 1. Kind Alter des jüngsten Kindes in Haushalten mit 2 Kindern unter 27 Jahren Personen ohne minderjährige Kinder im Haushalt nach Alter Source: Panova, Sulak, Bujard, Muth Summary and Discussion Summary Germany has the most enduring low fertility in the world Serious consequences for several policy fields Reconciliation strategy Family policy impact: long-term impact on fertility, but boundaries strong increase in FLP since 2005 Gender equity, FLP and fertility go hand in hand To do Family friendly labour market Life course policies to reduce the rushhour of life, women and men Reform of the tax system Policies for large families

10 ご清聴有難うございました Thank you for your attention! Federal Institute for Population Research Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4; Wiesbaden, Germany Tel.: ++49(0) References and Links Bujard, Martin (2011): Geburtenrückgang und Familienpolitik. Baden-Baden: Nomos. Bujard, Martin (2012): Family Policy and Demographic Effects: The Case of Germany, in: Demográfia English Edition 54, Bujard, Martin (2015): Consequences of Enduring Low Fertility A German Case Study. Demographic Projections and Implications for Different Policy Fields, in: Comparative Population Studies 40 (2). [DOI: /CPoS en] Deutsche Übersetzung: Bujard, Martin (2015): Kinderlosigkeit in Deutschland, in: Zeitschrift für Familienforschung 27 (3), Bujard, Martin & Panova, Ralina (2016): Zwei Varianten der Rushhour des Lebens: Lebensentscheidungen und Zeitverwendung, in: Bevölkerungsforschung Aktuell 37 (1).