Contamination of sediments in the Elbe estuary and its sensitivity to climate change

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Bernhard Fischer
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1 Contamination of sediments in the Elbe estuary and its sensitivity to climate change Carmen Kleisinger, Holger Haase, Uwe Hentschke, Birgit Schubert Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) Am Mainzer Tor Koblenz kleisinger@bafg.de

2 Objectives for the Elbe estuary 1. Determination of climate change impact on the contamination of sediment and suspended particulate matter (SPM) 2. Determination of climate change impact on transport of particle-bound contaminants 3. Determination of climate change impact on management strategies for dredged material

3 Study Area Geesthacht Weir Monitoring sites in the Elbe estuary: surface sediments and SPM

4 Influence of discharge on contaminant concentrations High freshwater discharge => rising pollutant concentrations Long lasting high freshwater discharges => long term high pollutant concentrations Discharge Neu Darchau

5 Sensitivity Study in the Elbe estuary Mixing Model C marine C fluvial C estuary mixed Amount of marine SPM = constant % marine / fluvial % marine / fluvial From concentration ratios Increased or changed SPM/ contaminant input Calculated change C estuary (projected)

6 Rate of change Projection of Suspended matter concentrations - Elbe Rates of change of the annual suspended matter load (SOBEK), Gauging station Hitzacker (Elbe-km 522) Rates of change of suspended matter load are mostly between +/-20 % (max. +56/-31 %) From: KLIWAS-Project Suspended Matter Modelling in the inner reach of the Elbe, Hillebrand, G. Near Future ( ) Far Future ( )

7 Reference Reference Reference Concentration [µg/kg] Projections - Elbe estuary *0,5 Wedel, inner Elbe estuary Cadmium[mg/kg] HCB p,p-dde Action Level *0,5 Action Level *2 *0,5 Projections *2 *2 Action Level Near Future Far Future Action Level: upper national action levels for the handling of dredged material (GÜBAK)

8 Reference Reference Reference Concentration [µg/kg] Projections - Elbe estuary Brunsbüttel, Elbe estuary Cadmium[mg/kg] HCB p,p-dde Action Level Action Level *0,5 *2 *0,5 *0,5 Projections *2 Action Level *2 Near Future Far Future Action Level: upper national action levels for the handling of dredged material (GÜBAK)

9 Rate of change Projections Elbe estuary Near Future Wedel [%] Near Future Brunsbüttel [%] Far Future Wedel [%] Far Future Brunsbüttel [%] 4 to 12 2 to to to 30-8 to to to to -25 Near Future Far Future Changing contaminant concentrations in percent

10 Concentration [µg/kg] Projections Elbe estuary 7 6 p,p-dde Near Future Wedel Action Level -12 % PM input +6 % PM input +17 % PM input Reference 1-13 % PM input and -50% contaminant concentration +18% PM input and -50% contaminant concentration 0 Input*0,87 + Conc. *0,5 Input*0,88 Input * 1,06 Input * 1,17 Input * 1,18 + Conc.*0,5 Wedel MV

11 Konzentration [µg/kg] Projections Elbe estuary 7 6 p,p-dde Far Future Wedel Action Level -12 % PM input -8 % PM input +20 % PM input Reference 1-31 % PM input and -50% Contaminant concentration +56% PM input and -50% Contaminant concentration 0 Input*0,69 + Conc. *0,5 Input*0,88 Input*0,92 Input * 1,2 Input * 1,56 + Conc.*0,5 Wedel MV

12 Summary Worst case Projection: PM input +56% in the far future (Elbe) Increase of contaminant concentration by 34% enhanced exceedance of action levels possible Adaptation of sediment management strategies To the North Sea climate induced changes are small (e.g. Brunsbüttel) A reduction of contaminant concentrations in sediments of the inner reach of the Elbe by 50% distinct improvement of the sediment quality in the estuary Near Future: No exceedance of action levels Far Future: No exceedance of action levels

13 Picture: Norbert Grope Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit! Thank you for your Attention

14 Trends Trend of Cd (in <20 µm) in Wedel, Elbe-km 642 Trend Analyses Period Annual Data Significance Single Data Significance LINEAR Trend component Non LINEAR Trend component ja; p=0, nein; p=0,077 ja; p=0,000 ja; p=0,000 Reference: QuoData GmbH Dresden

15 Equations Mixing Model Equation 1: M ref C C fluvial estuary C C estuary marine Equation 2: MR MR new ref PM PM inputref inputnew Equation 3 derived from equation 1: C estuarynew MR new * c 1 marine MR new c fluvial

16 S/N Verhältnis (Quodata GmbH)

17 Robustes Mischungsverhältnis (Quodata GmbH) Multivariates Mischungsmodell Der fluviale Einfluss kann anhand der Mischungsgleichung bestimmt werden, wobei Schadstoffe und Schadstoffpaarungen mit hohem Gradienten herangezogen werden. Für den fluvialen Einfluss von Schadstoffpaaren werden statt der Konzentrationen des Einzelschadstoffes die Verhältnisse zweier Schadstoffkonzentrationen betrachtet Der fluviale Einfluss wird für alle relevanten Schadstoffe und Schadstoffpaare für alle Messzeitpunkte berechnet -> analyt-spezifischer Mittelwert des fluvialen Einflusses für jede Station-Analyt-Kombination über alle Zeitpunkte Verwendung von marinen Schadstoffgehalten aus 2005 Die fluviale Schadstoffkonzentration für Ästuareingang wurde auf Basis eines GAM -Modells in Abhängigkeit der Zeit und des Abflusses sowie weiterer (schadstoffspezifischer) relevanter Einflussfaktoren modelliert.

18 Robustes Mischungsverhältnis (Quodata GmbH) Robuster Mittelwert auf Grundlage von Q/Hampel (Schätzung der Standardabweichung unterscheidet sich zu Hampel hier: robuste Standardabweichung, Ausreißer haben weniger Einfluss) Fluvialer Einfluss:

19 Referenz Referenz Konzentration (mg/kg) Referenz Referenz Konzentration (mg/kg) Projektion Schwebstoffgehalte - Elbe nz RW2 Cadmium fz Wedel nz Quecksilber RW2 Robustes MV ohne Störung Projizierte Änderung Schwebstoffeintrag in % fz Referenz p,p-dde (µg/kg) nz RW2 Nicht robustes MV: Cd: Marin: 76%, Fluvial: 24% Hg: Marin: 54%, Fluvial: 46% p,p`-dde: Marin: 77%, Fluvial: 23% fz nz Cadmium RW2 Robustes MV: Marin: 73% Fluvial: 27% Robustes MV mit Störung fz Wedel nz Quecksilber RW2 Projizierte Änderung Schwebstoffeintrag in % fz Referenz p,p-dde (µg/kg) nz RW2 fz

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