www.volker-quaschning.de The Solar Revolution New Ways for Climate Protection with Solar Electricity Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft HTW Berlin ECO Summit ECO14 3. June 2014 Berlin
Crossroads to Climate Catastrophe 6 global temperature increase in C 5 4 3 2 1 0 former development business as usual climate protection -1 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Data: NASA, IPCC 2
Global Requirements for Climate Protection 40000 Mt 35000 reduction path for the two degree target CO 2 emissions related to energy 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 former CO 2 emissions 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 data: WRI, IEA, PIK-Potsdam 3
Development of Electricity Generation in Germany Prognosis based on the goals of the German government Constant level of fossil power generation 4
Renewable Electricity Share in Germany Year 2012/13- own calculations on the base of available data from the big utilities energy transition Germany EnBW hydro power other renewables nuclear power fossil power others Vattenfall e.on RWE 0% 50% 100% 5
Comedown of Photovoltaics in Germany newly installed PV power in GW 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 China Germany 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6
Thesis I Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin The big utilities have the wrong power stations for the energy transition and must slow down the development to save their profits. A reliable electricity supply with 100% renewable energy is possible. The cost argument is only used to slow down the speed of the Germany energy transition. 7
Development of Electricity Prices 60 50 EEG tariff PV < 10 kw domestic electricity price 40 grid parity 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ct/kwh cost advantage of own consumption 8
Photovoltaic Own Consumption System photovoltaic modules inverter consumer >27 ct/kwh grid meter 13 ct/kwh 9
Photovoltaic Own Consumption System with Battery photovoltaic modules inverter consumer grid meter battery 10
Development of Domestic Fuel Prices Assumptions: burner efficiency 80%, calorific value of fuel oil 10.5 kwh/l 60 50 EEG tariff PV < 10 kw fuel oil + 10% p.a. fuel oil + 1% p.a. 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ct/kwh fuel oil parity 11
PV-Heat Pump System photovoltaic modules inverter = control fresh water station hot water storage heat pump radiators consumer meter 888.888 kwh grid 12
Electricity Savings with PV Heat Pump Systems Installed photovoltaic power 7 kw (approx. 50 m²) without battery old house 175 kwh/(m² a) Heat pump electricity new house 95 kwh/(m² a) passive house 15 kwh/(m² a) 21% 32% 30% 79% 68% 70% photovoltaics mains supply 33% Household electricity One family house: usable floor area 127 m², location Berlin, air-water heat pump, PV system 7.2 kwp, hot water tank 500 l Household electricity demand 3940 kwh/a, drinking water demand 15.5 kwh/(m² a) 13
PV Potential at One Family Houses in Germany PV power per one family house kwp 2 4 4 7 Battery capacity kwh - 4-5 Heat storage l - - 800 800 Own consumption % 50 70 85 83 PV potential in Germany GWp 26 52 52 90 14
Conclusions For protecting the livelihood of future generations we need a real energy revolution with 100% renewables until 2040. Policy and big business are not able to protect our natural resources. Wen can take the energy revolution in our own hands. Own consumption systems give us the key. 15
Now, it is up to us all to force through, the energy revolution. Policy and big industry have failed. Our children will thank us for it. 16
For Further Reading www.volker-quaschning.de 17