Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO) Woher kommt der Wasserstoff? Eine Analyse der globalen Energiesituation

Transkript

1 FVS-Workshop Wasserstoff aus Erneuerbaren Energien WBZU, Ulm, Mai 2007 Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO) Woher kommt der Wasserstoff? Eine Analyse der globalen Energiesituation Jörg Schindler Patrick Schmidt Martin Zerta Werner Zittel Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Ottobrunn 1

2 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 2

3 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 3

4 Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Wissenschaftliche Strategie- und Technologieanalysen für nachhaltige Energie- und Transportsysteme Gegründet 1982 Globale Ausrichtung und Langzeitperspektive Technologieausrichtung Wasserstoff, Brennstoffzellen, nachhaltige Energie Kunden: Industrie, Politik, NGOs weltweit Dr. Ludwig Bölkow, Gründer der LBST, 2003 Interdisziplinäres Team mit hoher Kontinuität 4 Gesellschafter: TÜV SÜD (47%), Mitarbeiter der LBST (29%), Ludwig Bölkow Stiftung (12%), Herr Gerhard Jochum (12%)

5 Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Arbeitsfelder Lebenszyklusanalysen von Energieketten EU-Aktivitäten im Bereich Wasserstoff-Energietechnologie EQHHPP, EIHP, HyNet, HyWays, AcceptH2, HFP, HarmonHy, HyApproval, HyLights Studien im Bereich Infrastruktur und alternative Kraftstoffe Machbarkeitsuntersuchungen Strategieberatung für die Politik Analyse fossile Ressourcen (seit 1995) Energieszenarien 5

6 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 6

7 Unresolved Dilemma of Industrialised Society Total Primary Energy Supply [Mtoe/yr] Development implied by economic growth (IEA) Others Coal Gas Oil Emission reduction necessary to mitigate climate change (IPCC) Year 7 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy; LBST

8 Methodology: Scenario building by IEA and LBST IEA World Energy Outlook 2005 (WEO 2005) Economic key figures Energy supply Top-down ( predict and provide ) Bottom-up Energy demand Fossil ressources Renewable potentials Growth rates 8 LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook 2006 (AWEO 2006)

9 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 9

10 Primary Energy Supply: Conventional (Extractive) Energies Idealised production pattern Production rate Hubbert curve Cumulated production S-shape curve Time Time 10

11 Primary Energy Supply: Conventional (Extractive) Energies Development of regional oil production Oil production Production peak Largest fields exploited first Followed by smaller fields 1 st field n th field 2 nd field At some point in time decline in production of large fields cannot be compensated The higher initial extraction rate - the earlier decline starts - the longer its decline phase - the lower overall yield 11 Time

12 Primary Energy Supply: World Oil Production Oil production in [Mb/d] Legend Transition Economies Africa Latin America Middle East East Asia South Asia China OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Peak Africa Latin America WEO 2006 Transition Economies 40 Middle East 20 East Asia China OECD Europa OECD North America Scenario assumption: decline rate after peak of 2.7%/yr Actual experience: decline rates of 10%/yr and beyond (e.g. Alaska, Mexico, Norway, Oman, UK)

13 Primary Energy Supply: World Natural Gas Production Gas production in [billion m³] Peak ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Legend Transition Economies Africa Latin America Middle-East East-Asia South-Asia China OECD-Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 2006 WEO 2006 Transition Economies Africa Latin America 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 OECD Europa East Asia Middle East 1,000 OECD North America

14 Primary Energy Supply: Coal Production by Region China: ? South Asia (India): 2060? 2, ,500 1, ,200 Coal production in [Mt] 2,000 1,500 Legend Lignite Subbit Bituminous 2,000 1,500 Coal production in [Mt] 1, Legend Lignite Bituminous Lignite 1, Lignite , Bituminous + subbituminous 1, Bituminous OECD North America: 2025? OECD Pacific: ? ,600 1,600 1, Coal production in [Mt] 1,400 1,200 1, Legend Mexico Canada USA Canada USA Mexico 1,400 1,200 1, Coal production in [Mt] 1, Legend NewZealand-lignite NeaZealand-bit Australia-lignite Australia-bit South Korea Japan-bit Japan-bituminous South Korea bituminous Australia-lignite Australia-bituminous

15 Primary Energy Supply: World Coal Production Coal production in [Mt] 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Legend Transition Economies Africa Latin America East Asia South Asia China OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America East Asia Peak Transition Economies Africa Lig Bit Subbit South Asia China Bit Bituminous Lignite Bituminous Subbit Latin America Bituminous 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Bituminous Lignite 1,500 1, Lignite OECD Europe Bituminous Lignite OECD Pacific Bituminous Subbit 1, OECD North America Bituminous Lignite For details on coal resource/reserve analyses, see EWG Report No. 1/ 2007 Coal : e/2007ewg-coal e.html

16 Primary Energy Supply: World Nuclear Power Capacities Capacity grid-connected [GW] IAEA 2004 WEO Build-up of new capacity (construction start) Existing capacity New capacity Just to sustain current level would require ~1 new reactor per month to go online for the next 20 years Year 16 For details on nuclear resource/reserve analyses, see EWG Report No. 1/2006 Uranium : e/2006ewg-uranium e.html

17 Primary Energy Supply: World Uranium Reserves/Resources 1000 t Uranium Storage Projection Reserves at US $40/kg Estimated possible additional resources cat I Estimated possible additional resources cat II Uranium for Nuclear weapons Already produced since 1945 (forecast with constant generating capacity) Reasonable additional assured resources at US $80/kg Reasonable additional assured resources at US $130/kg % 33% Speculative Year 17 Data source: BGR 2003 For details on nuclear resource/reserve analyses, see EWG Report No. 1/2006 Uranium : e/2006ewg-uranium e.html

18 Primary Energy Supply: Contributions from Fossil and Nuclear Fuels Summary 16, ,000 Production in [Mtoe per year] 14,000 12,000 Legend Oil Gas Coal bit+subbit Coal lignite Nuclear WEO 2006 Peak ,000 12,000 10,000 Nuclear 10,000 8,000 Bituminous + subbituminous 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 Lignite coal Gas 4,000 2,000 Oil 2,

19 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 19

20 Primary Energy Supply: Contributions from Renewable Energies Growth rates and methodology Photovoltaic (PV) + 24 % per year Solar thermal power plants (SOT) + 30 % per year Logistic growth concept Solar collectors (heat) + 11 % per year Potential P Biomass % per year 0.5 * P b Potent ial Wind power + 16 % per year History (already developed) Hydropower Geothermal % per year + 11 % per year F = T0 P ( ) 1+e -T-T0 b 20 Average global growth rates

21 Primary Energy Supply: Contributions from Renewable Energies Summary Electricity and heat production in [Mtoe] 20,000 15,000 10, Legend Solar_th Biomass_th Geothermal_th Geothermal_el SOT_el PV_el Wind_el Hydro_el Geothermal thermal energy Geothermal electricity Solar thermal collectors Biomass SOT electricity 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 WEO 2006 all RES Photovoltaic electricity Wind power electricity 5,000 Hydro power - electricity

22 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 22

23 Primary Energy Supply: Summary Conventional and Renewable Energies LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Total primary energy supply in [Mtoe] 20,000 15,000 10,000 Legend Geothermal Hydro Wind Biomass Solar collectors SOT PV Uranium Coal Gas Oil Hydropower Uranium WEO 2006 Coal Geothermal Wind power Biomass Solar collectors SOT 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Gas PV 5,000 Oil

24 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 24

25 Technical Potential: Electricity Production World by region 70,000 70,000 Electricity production in [TWh/yr] 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Legend Africa Middle East Latin America East Asia South Asia China Transition Economies OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Electricity demand (2004) 17,500 TWh 20,000 10, PV SOT Wind Hydropower Geothermal

26 Thermal energy production in [Mtoe/yr] Technical Potential: Heat Production World by region 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Legend Africa Middle East Latin America East Asia South Asia China Transition Economies OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America? 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Heat and transportation fuel demand (2004): ~5,700 Mtoe Biomass demand (2004): ~1,100 Mtoe 4,000 2, Biomass Biogas Geothermal heat Solar thermal

27 Yield per ha and year for different transportation fuels Hydrocarbons Hydrogen 800 Assumptions H 2 : Yield [GJfinal fuel/(ha yr)] Area occupied with PV: 33% Solar irradiation: 900 kwh/(m² yr) Efficiency PV modules: 15% Performance Ratio: 75% Efficiency CGH 2 supply: 60% Efficiency LH 2 supply: 54% Density: 2.4 wind turbines/km² Installed capacity: 2,000 kw/wind turbine Equivalent full load period WT: 1,800 h/yr *) *) LBST 27 Biodiesel (RME) Ethanol wheat Ethanol short rotation forestry Bio-methane BTL LH2 short rotation forestry CGH2 short rotation forestry CGH2 PV LH2 PV CGH2 wind LH2 wind *) more than 99% of the land area can still be used for other purposes, e.g. agriculture

28 Inhalt LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook Fossil und nuklear Erneuerbar Zusammenfassung Potenziale und Erträge Wasserstoff: Woher? Woher nicht? 28

29 Total primary energy supply in [Mtoe] Production in [Mtoe per year] Wasserstoff woher? Woher nicht? 29 Leitplanken einer zukünftigen Energieversorgung Verknappung von Öl, Erdgas, Kohle und Uran lange vor Erschöpfung der Ressourcen Peak! Peak oil trifft vor allem den Transportsektor Beiträge durch Biomasse im Transportsektor stark begrenzt Wettbewerb! Kohle und Uran können Rückgang bei Öl und Gas nicht kompensieren Wasserstoff ist vielseitig hinsichtlich der eingesetzten Primärenergien. Kurzfristig kann, langfristig muss Wasserstoff aus erneuerbaren Energiequellen kommen Ressourcen, Klimawandel! Kritische Phase für Primärenergieversorgung ist (regional unterschiedlich) Massive Steigerung der Effizienz erforderlich, aber alleine nicht ausreichend Weichenstellung für erneuerbare Energien und Wasserstoff jetzt notwendig für langfristige Sicherung der Energieversorgung Fokus! 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Legend Oil Gas Coal bit+subbit Coal lignite Nuclear Lignite coal Legend Geothermal Hydro Wind Biomass Solar collectors SOT PV Uranium Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydropower Uranium Oil Bituminous + subbituminous Coal Gas Gas Oil WEO 2006 WEO 2006 Peak ? Geothermal Wind power PV Biomass Solar collectors SOT 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

30 Webseiten der LBST LBST.de SERVICE WEBSITES HyWeb.de H2mobility.org H2stations.org EnergyShortage.com H2data.de PROJECT WEBSITES HFPeurope.org HyLights.org HyWays.de HyNet.info AcceptH2.com 30 HyApproval.org EIHP.org...

31 FVS-Workshop Wasserstoff aus Erneuerbaren Energien WBZU, Ulm, Mai 2007 Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO) Woher kommt der Wasserstoff? Eine Analyse der globalen Energiesituation Vielen Dank. Patrick Schmidt Jörg Schindler Martin Zerta Werner Zittel Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Ottobrunn 31