The North American Egg Industry in Transition

Transkript

1 The North American Egg Industry in Transition Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst IEC, Statistical Analyst Paper presented at the 2018 IEC Business Conference London, April 10th Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 1

2 Agenda: 1. The three North American countries: basic facts 2. Dynamics and patterns of egg production and trade 3. AI outbreaks and impacts 4. The future of housing systems 5. Perspectives Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 2

3 The three North American countries: basic facts Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 3

4 Item Unit USA Mexico Canada Population mill GNP billion US-$ 18,624 1,047 1,529 Per capita GNP US-$ 57,436 18,938 46,437 Laying hens mill Egg production 1,000 t 6,038 2, Per capita egg consumption pieces Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 4

5 North America s Role in global egg production Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 5

6 The development of global egg production between 1996 and 2016 Continent 1996 (1,000 t) Africa Asia Europe N America CS America Oceania 1, , , , , (1,000 t) 2, , , , , (1,000 t) 3, , , , , Increase 1,000 t % 1, , , , , World 45, , , , Note: N America s share in global increase: 10.7 %; Asia s share: 69.8 % FAO Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 6

7 The development of egg production in Europe between 1996 and 2016; data in 1,000 t Sub-region Increase (%) Northern Eastern Southern Western 1,073 3,660 1,723 2,788 1,019 4,458 1,934 2,644 1,235 4,783 2,005 2, Europe 9,244 10,054 10, FAO

8 The changing contribution of the continents to global egg production between 1996 and 2016 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 8

9 The dynamics and patterns at country base Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 9

10 The development of egg production in the three North American countries between 1996 and 2016 Country Increase (%) Canada Mexico USA 329 1,236 4, ,290 5, ,720 6, N America 6,088 8,126 9, The changing contribution of the countries to N America s egg production Country Change (%) Canada Mexico USA FAO , Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 10

11 USA Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 11

12 The development of table egg layers inventory and of egg production between 2000 and 2016 Year Layers (1,000) Index (2000 = 100) Egg production (mill.) Index (2000 = 100) , , , , , , ,453 76,384 76,854 82,183 88,385 89, USDA, NASS Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 12

13 The ten leading states in US egg production in 1996 and 2016; data in mill. pieces State Production Share (%) California Ohio Indiana Pennsylvania Iowa Georgia Texas Arkansas Minnesota N Carolina 6,569 6,502 5,666 5,640 5,011 4,584 3,986 3,428 3,087 2, State Production Share (%) Iowa Ohio Indiana Pennsylvania Texas Georgia Michigan N Carolina California Arkansas 13,608 9,546 8,910 8,212 5,572 4,894 3,964 3,730 3,473 3, , States 47, States 65, USA 76, USA 101, Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 13

14 The spatial pattern of US egg production (2016) Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 14

15 Canada Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 15

16 The development of the laying hen inventory and of egg production between 1996 and 2016 Year Laying hens (1,000) Index (1996 = 100) Egg production (mill.) Index (1996 = 100) ,664 21,145 25, ,212 6,540 8, Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 16

17 Egg farms, laying hens and egg production by provinces (2016) Province Egg farms Laying hens (1,000) Br. Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia P. E. Island Newfoundl. a. L ,169 2,299 1,247 2,963 9,584 4, Share (%) Average flock size 23,131 12,843 16,408 19,240 27,780 40,718 21,250 38,000 20,143 76,000 Canada 1,062 25, ,221 Egg Farmers of Canada Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 17

18 The spatial pattern of egg production in Canada (2016) Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 18

19 Federal production quotas by provinces (2016) Province Br. Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia P. E. Island Newfoundl. a. L. Production (mill. eggs) , , Share (%) Canada 7.927, The annual egg production is controlled with the Supply Management System. The provinces allocate their quotas to the single farms. The provinces also set the prices which will be paid to the farmers. Egg Farmers of Canada Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 19

20 Mexico Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 20

21 The development of the laying hen inventory and of egg production between 2010 and 2016 Year Laying hens (mill.) Index (2010 = 100) Egg production (1,000 t) Index (2010 = 100) ,475 2,538 2,387 2,509 2,571 2,623 2, UNA 2017; IEC Annual Review 2017 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 21

22 The spatial pattern of Mexico s laying hen inventories Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 22

23 Avian Influenza outbreaks in Canada, Mexico and the USA Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 23

24 Canada: 2004 Fraser Valley (BC) outbreak 410 commercial egg farms and 553 backyard flocks were depopulated according to OIE standards 17 mill. birds died from AI or were slaughtered Total direct and indirect financial loss: 381 mill. CDN Mexico: Outbreaks in 1994, 2012 and 2016 Total financial losses over 900 million US-$ To stop the outbreaks and to prevent a further dissemination, flocks are vaccinated Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 24

25 USA: AI outbreaks in 211 commercial and 21 backyard flocks between 12/2014 and 6/ mill. laying hens and pullets and 7.5 mill. turkeys either died from the infection or were depopulated according to OIE standards Vaccination was discussed but not applied Mainly affected states were Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota Table egg exports decreased by 6.8 %; egg products by 38.5 %; broiler meat by 13.5 % and turkey meat by 33.8 % Total financial losses were estimated at 2,6 billion US-$. Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 25

26 US Egg Industry Center Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 26

27 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Cents / dozen Figure 5: Estimated Cost of Production and Producer Non-Processed Egg Price in U.S. (Quarterly ) Cost Price US Egg Inddustry Center Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 27

28 The future of housing systems Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 28

29 The share of housing systems in laying hen husbandry (2016), data in % Country Cages Barn system Canada Mexico USA IEC 2017 Annual Review Free range Organic Note: Canada will prohibit conventional cages from 2036 on. In Mexico discussion regarding the transformation to alternative housing systems is just beginning Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 29

30 Projected demand of cage-free eggs in the USA in 2025 Requested by Food retailers Restaurants Others Eggs (mill./year) 46,920 7,612 7,183 Share (%) in total request Necessary layers (mill.) Share (%) in US layer flocks (as of 2017) Total 61, UEP Comment: The transformation was stopped in 4/2017 because of high losses resulting from higher production costs in cage-free farms and low egg prices Estimate: about 45-50% of the table-egg layers may be kept in cage-free systems in 2025 Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 30

31 Perspectives Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 31

32 Canada: Promising because of the Supply Management System and the coordinated strategy to ban conventional cages Mexico: Could be promising because of cheap food and labour; high standard of market-oriented companies; but: high risk of AI outbreaks. If the AI strains mutate, vaccination would no longer be effective and the egg industry could be confronted with serious economic problems. Egg industry will have to decentralise. Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 32

33 USA: Future is difficult to predict Strength: cheap feed and labour, size of the domestic market Weakness: no national uniform definition of cage-free; uncoordinated transformation to alternative housing systems, high risk of AI outbreaks Future challenges: Banning of killing one-day-old male chicks, beak treatment Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 33

34 Projected development of global egg production between 2016 and 2030 at continent basis; data in 1,000 t Continent Increase (1,000 t) Africa Asia Europe N America* CS America Oceania 3,218 44,500 10,990 9,189 5, ,496 52,363 11,558 10,360 7, ,278 7, ,171 2, Increase (%) World 73,890 86,815 12, * Canada, Mexico, USA Windhorst 2014

35 Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr. H.-W. Windhorst Wissenschafts- und Informationszentrum Nachhaltige Geflügelwirtschaft WING 35