CO2-Emissionen in Österreich Unser Ziel am : Offizielle, eindeutige CO2-Emissionsdaten Nachvollziehbare Berechnungsmethodik CO2-Emissionen in Österreich Gilbert Ahamer Umweltbundesamt Möglichst vollständige Erfassung Internationale Vergleichbarkeit (UBA, ÖSTAT, IPCC, CORINAIR) Wie läuft s in? Der Trend weist nach oben! Steigerungsraten der CO2-Emissionen: +1,5% für 1994 +4,3% für 1995? %/Jahr 90 Steigerungsraten der CO2-Emissionen Österreichs 80 8,0% 8% 70 6,0% 6% 60 4,0% 4% 50 2,0% 2% 40 Ost 0,0% 0% 30 West -2,0% -2% 20 Nord -4,0% -4% 10-6% -6,0% 0-8% -8,0% 1. 2. 3. 4. -10% Qrtl Qrtl Qrtl Qrtl -10,0% 1988. 1989. 1990 1991. 1992. 1993 1994 1995 Jahr Wie steht s in? Endgültige Werte für 1994: 59,60 Mt CO2 Vorläufige Werte für 1995: 62,18 Mt CO2 Berechnungsmethode: Primärenergieeinsatz ausgehend von der WIFO-Energiebilanz Gilbert Ahamer 1
CO2-Emissionen in Österreich Welche Energieträger nahmen in 1994 besonders zu? in Welche Sektoren nahmen 1994 besonders zu? Kohle Erdöl Gas sonstige und Summe ind. Prozesse 93-94% -1,9% -0,8% 4,7% 10,2% 1,5% 94-95% 11,8% 3,2% 7,5% -6,5% 4,3% Strom! Trend! Witterungsbedingt nahmen Stromerzeugung und Raumwärme zu, Industrie stagnierte Stromer- Fernwärme Industrie Industrie Verkehr Kleinver- Energie- Summe zeugung Verbrennung Prozesse braucher sektor 93-94% 16,8% -9,5% -6,6% 10,3% 3,2% -6,9% 0,9% 1,5% 94-95% 14,8% 8,1% 2,8% -7,0% 0,6% 8,0% 0,0% 4,3% kalt! Kohle Gas Strom Wärme Wer hat sich die Reduktionsziele überhaupt ausgedacht? Temperatur soll nicht um 1,5-4,5 steigen global soll man unter der doppelten vorindustriellen CO2-Konzentration bleiben (IPCC) global soll die Steigerungsrate der CO2- Emissionen höchstens -1% betragen (Toronto) Industrieländer sollen -3% pro Jahr einhalten (Klimabündnisziel)... demgegenüber stiegen die globalen Emissionen um +3% pro Jahr an (Realität) Gilbert Ahamer 2
co2-ergebnis Diagramm 1 80 000 000 CO2-Emissionen in Österreich - Ergebnis Linien: aus IEA-Daten, nach Eprim (oben) & Eend (unten) 70 000 000 Unterschied = 26% 60 000 000 CO2-prozeß t 50 000 000 40 000 000 t 30 000 000 CO2-pyro t 20 000 000 10 000 000 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Seite 1
Datei CO2-ZE~1.XLS, Blatt %Steigerung Erstellt von Gilbert Ahamer, UBA Wien 1996 Seite 1 jährliche prozentuelle Steigerung der CO2-Emissionen in Österreich (Vergleich UBA - TU Wien/Hackl) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% prozentuelle Steigerung UBA 0% -2% prozentuelle Steigerung TU Wien 6 Per. Gleitender Durchschnitt (prozentuelle Steigerung UBA) -4% -6% -8% -10% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Seite 1
70 CO2-Emissionen in Österreich nach Sektoren Stabilisierung 60 Energiesektor 50 Toronto Kleinverbraucher Mio t CO2 40 30 Verkehr Industrie Prozesse 20 10 Industrie Verbrennung Fernwärme Stromerzeugung 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
CO2 in Austria Austria: Emissions of CO2 as of July 31, 1996. Reported by the Austrian Federal Environment Agency EUROPEAN UNION CO2 REPORTING TABLES Estimation from CORINAIR Emission Inventory allocated into IPCC Source and Sink Categories, for EU-CO2 reporting Table 1: Emissions per IPCC Source and Sink Categories 1994 final 1995 prelim. Steigerung 94-95 TOTAL for reporting to EU 57208 59795 4.5% 1 ENERGY USE 50321 53030 5.4% 1A Fuel Combustion Activities 48059 50671 5.4%. Electricity and Heat Production 8844 9728 10.0%. Petroleum Refining 0 0 4.5%. Solid Fuel Transf./Other Energy Industries 189 198 4.5%. Fuel Combustion Activities/Industry (ISIC) 9821 10263 4.5%. Domestic Civil Aviation 73 76 4.5%. Road Transportation 15088 15767 4.5%. Railways 58 61 4.5%. Domestic Navigation 0 0 4.5%. Other Transportation 1581 1652 4.5%. Commercial/Institutional 1925 2006 4.2%. Residential 10479 10919 4.2%. Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing 1 1 4.2%. Other Combustion Activities 0 0 4.2% 1B Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 2262 2359 4.3%. Solid Fuels 0 0 4.3%. Oil and Natural Gas 2262 2359 4.3% 2 INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 6460 6331-2.0% 2A Iron and Steel 3486 3416-2.0% 2B Non Ferrous Metals 0 0-2.0% 2C Inorganic Chemicals 408 400-2.0% 2D Organic Chemicals 0 0-2.0% 2E Non Metallic Mineral Products 2510 2460-2.0% 2F Other Industrial Processes 56 55-2.0% 3 SOLVENT AND OTHER PRODUCT USE 411 417 1.5% 3A Paint Application 47 48 1.5% 3B Degreasing and Dry Cleaning 0 0 1.5% 3C Chemical, Manufacture and Processing 54 55 1.5% 3D Other Solvent/Product Use 310 315 1.5% 4 AGRICULTURE 0 0 4A Enteric Fermentation - - 1.0% 4B Manure Management - - 1.0% 4C Rice Cultivation 0 0 1.0% 4D Agricultural Soils 0 0 1.0% 4E Prescribed Burning of Savannas - - 1.0% 4F Field Burning of Agricultural Residues - - 1.0% 4G Other Agriculture Activities - - 1.0% 5 LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY 0 0 5A Changes in Forest/Woody Biomass Stocks 0 0 1.0% 5B Forest and Grassland Conversion 0 0 1.0% 5C Abandonment of Managed Lands 0 0 1.0% 5D Other Land Use Change / Forestry Activities 0 0 1.0% 6 WASTE 16 17 4.3% 6A Solid Waste Disposal on Land 0 0 1.0% 6B Wastewater Treatment 0 0 1.0% 6C Waste Incineration 16 17 4.3% 6D Other Waste 0 0 7 OTHER 0 0 Remark: in order to reach (within a range of 0.2%) the Austrian National CO2 figure (for which time series 1955-1994 exist) two positions have to be added to the sum included in the TOTAL reported to the EU: + International Aviation (bunkers) 1140 + fuel type "other 2" (=municipal wastes, see table 2) 1424 59772 total reported inside Austria 59602 difference 0.28% EUROPEAN UNION CO2 REPORTING TABLES Estimation from CORINAIR Emission Inventory allocated into IPCC Source and Sink Categories, for EU-CO2 reporting page 1 of 3
CO2 in Austria Table 2 - Emissions from Fuel Combustion Activities per IPCC Fuel Type, ONLY FOR POSITION 1A ESTIMATION OF NET EMISSIONS IPCC SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES CO2(*) Gg The difference of 2 Gg in the total is due to rounding in both tables. 1994 final 1A Fuel Combustion Activities (**) 48061 LIQUID 28356 SOLID 8168 GAS 11537 OTHER 1 (1424) 1A1a Electricity and Heat Production 8843 LIQUID 1928 SOLID 3336 GAS 3579 1A1b Petroleum Refining 0 LIQUID 0 1A1c Solid Fuel Transf./Other Energy Industries 190 LIQUID 58 SOLID 4 GAS 128 1A2 Fuel Combustion Activities/Industry (ISIC) 9821 LIQUID 3410 SOLID 2761 GAS 3650 OTHER 1 (1394) 1A3a2 Domestic Civil Aviation 73 LIQUID 73 1A3b Road Transportation 15088 LIQUID 15088 1A3c Railways 58 LIQUID 30 SOLID 28 OTHER 1 (1) 1A3d2 Domestic Navigation 0 LIQUID 0 1A3e Other Transportation 1582 LIQUID 1530 GAS 52 1A4a Commercial/Institutional 1926 page 2 of 3
CO2 in Austria LIQUID 1316 SOLID 610 OTHER 1 (29) 1A4b Residential 10479 LIQUID 4923 SOLID 1428 GAS 4128 1A4c Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing 1 LIQUID 0 SOLID 1 1A5 Other Combustion Activities 0 LIQUID 0 N.B. : IPCC Fuel Type Definition LIQUID CRUDE OIL AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS. SOLID COAL AND COAL PRODUCTS, PEAT INCLUDED. GAS NATURAL GAS AND DERIVED PRODUCTS. OTHER 1 MUNICIPAL WASTES OTHER 2 INDUSTRIAL WASTES BIOMASS WOOD,CHARCOAL,WOOD/VEGETAL WASTES,BIO-ALCOHOL,BLACK LIQUOR Caution : (*) CO2 from combustion of biomass and biomass-based waste fuels are reported in brackets but not included in national totals. (**) Emissions from International bunkers are not taken into account in national totals, cf table 1 page 3 of 3
IEA-Vergleich Diagramm 5 Beiträge zur Änderung der CO2-Emissionen 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% %/Jahr 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% CO2/Eprim Eprim/Eend Eend/BNP BNP/cap Pop CO2 Emissionen der Primärenergie nach UBA -10% 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Seite 1
Das CO2- Geschenk an die Atmosphäre 8 Tonnen jährlich pro Person